Bank of Canada Watch A “forceful" 50 bp hike and the start of QT We now anticipate that the Bank of Canada will raise its policy rate by 50 bp next week and announce the start of quantitative tightening. Nonetheless, we remain sceptical of the view priced into... 6th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to hike rates and start QT We expect the Bank of Canada to kick off its tightening cycle next week with a 25bp rate hike and an announcement that it will begin quantitative tightening. Amid signs of broadening inflationary... 23rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to tee up March hike Amid growing wage pressures, we now forecast that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates this quarter. While we wouldn’t rule out a hike next week, our base case is that the Bank will deliver a... 19th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy rate guidance unchanged Growing wage pressures and the renewed strength of house prices are likely to concern the Bank of Canada but, with oil prices plunging in the past week due to fears about the Omicron variant, we doubt... 1st December 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to call time on QE We expect the Bank of Canada to call time on its net asset purchases next week by transitioning to the “reinvestment phase” of QE. Widespread labour shortages suggest economic slack is being rapidly... 21st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy unchanged as recovery stalls The unexpected contraction in second-quarter GDP means the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before reducing the pace of its asset purchases again, rather than pushing ahead with tapering... 1st September 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to taper asset purchases As it is widely anticipated that the Bank of Canada will taper its asset purchases next week, the more significant development may be the introduction of a new range of indicators that the Bank will... 7th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to wait until July before tapering again Inflation surpassed the upper limit of the Bank of Canada’s target range in April but, with second-quarter GDP growth set to be weaker than the Bank expected and Governor Tiff Macklem concerned about... 2nd June 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to trim asset purchases despite third wave The Bank of Canada is set to cut the pace of its asset purchases next week. While it will also upgrade its GDP forecasts, we expect it to make an offsetting change to its estimate of the economy’s... 14th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to turn forward guidance up to eleven Although the economy has been stronger than expected, we doubt that the Bank of Canada is about to become more hawkish. Instead, we think the Bank will use its policy statement next week to double... 3rd March 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on hold as it upgrades its forecasts The Bank of Canada is set to upgrade its growth forecasts next week, despite the deterioration of the near-term outlook, so speculation that it might cut interest rates looks overdone. 13th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Latest restrictions unlikely to prompt further loosening The Bank of Canada’s forecasts already assumed a renewed hit to GDP from a further wave of COVID-19, so the latest restrictions have probably not altered its assessment of the outlook. We would... 2nd December 2020 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Renewed restrictions add to downside risks The economy has recovered faster than the Bank of Canada expected, but downside risks from the second wave of COVID-19 are mounting. We expect the Bank to reiterate next week that there is little... 21st October 2020 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain cautious despite stronger run of data The economy is performing better than the Bank of Canada previously expected, but the outlook remains challenging. We expect the Bank to keep policy unchanged next week and anticipate another fairly... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Policy on hold, but rate cuts coming The weakness of the recent business surveys suggests that the Bank of Canada will strike a dovish tone at its meeting next week. The Bank is unlikely to start talking about interest rate cuts just yet... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on the side-line Given the weakness of the latest economic data, the Bank of Canada is set to remain on the side-line next week. It will probably reiterate that further interest rate hikes will eventually be needed... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read