Bank of Canada Watch Bank continues to wait and see The Bank will be relieved to see the broad-based easing in core inflation in January, but is still likely to use its policy statement and press conference next week to emphasise the need for patience... 28th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Rate cuts are coming, albeit a little later The acceleration in the CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core inflation in December suggests the Bank of Canada will maintain a hawkish tone next week, but those measures are arguably overstating... 17th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A less hawkish hold The second consecutive month of muted core inflation pressures in October should have further reduced the Bank of Canada’s appetite for another interest rate hike. While markets are now in agreement... 29th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on hold, may push back QT end date The business surveys point to rising recession risks and core inflation pressures were muted in September, suggesting that there is little chance of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates next week... 18th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch No need for Bank to hike again Inflation has surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts but, given signs of slower GDP growth and looser labour market conditions, the Bank should be happy keeping interest rates on... 30th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A final 25 bp hike The easing of core inflation pressures in May and the decline in inflation expectations means the case for another interest rate hike is not as strong as it seemed a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, with... 5th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch 25bp hike coming with chance of another in July As GDP growth and CPI inflation have both surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts, we now judge that it will raise interest rates next week rather than wait until July. 31st May 2023 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Still pausing for thought The recent banking turmoil in the US means the Bank of Canada may sound more dovish next week, but the economy’s strong start to the year suggests it is too soon for the Bank to take further interest... 5th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Too soon for pause to become permanent The fall in CPI inflation in January and stagnation in fourth-quarter GDP mean there is little chance of the Bank of Canada resuming interest rate hikes next week. But concerns about the tight labour... 1st March 2023 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A smaller 25 bp hike with a hawkish message The Bank of Canada is set to raise interest rates by a smaller 25 bp next week. While many will be looking for clues that this will be the end of the tightening cycle, the key risk to market pricing... 18th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to drop down to 25 bp hike The easing of the three-month annualised measures of core inflation in October and signs of broader disinflationary pressure ahead lead us to think the Bank of Canada will drop down to a 25bp interest... 30th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to opt for another 75 bp hike Governor Tiff Macklem has told us that the Bank of Canada needs to see firm evidence of improvements in core inflation and near-term inflation expectations before it slows the pace of its tightening... 19th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch 75 bp hike despite slowing economy GDP growth and inflation will be lower than the Bank of Canada anticipated this quarter, but the odds still seem to favour a 75bp policy rate hike next week to 3.25%. The risks to our forecast that... 1st September 2022 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A more forceful 75 bp hike The recent acceleration in wage growth and rise in long-run inflation expectations leave little doubt that, despite the drop back in commodity prices, the Bank of Canada will follow through with a... 6th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Another forceful rate hike coming We expect the Bank of Canada to hike its policy rate by another 50bp next week, to 1.50%, and to drop a heavy hint that a final 50bp hike is coming at the following policy meeting in mid-July. We... 25th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A “forceful" 50 bp hike and the start of QT We now anticipate that the Bank of Canada will raise its policy rate by 50 bp next week and announce the start of quantitative tightening. Nonetheless, we remain sceptical of the view priced into... 6th April 2022 · 7 mins read