China Economics Weekly PBOC pushes back against RMB undervaluation claims The PBOC has attempted to set the record straight on the nature of its FX intervention and refute claims that currency depreciation is driving China’s soaring trade surplus. While we agree that a... 9th October 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China could weather tougher EU trade restrictions Even a sharp escalation in EU trade restrictions would have only a small impact on China’s economy. We estimate that an additional 20%-pt tariff on Chinese imports across strategically important... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly AI trade surplus rising, despite surge in chip imports China's trade deficit in chips and computing equipment has increasing significantly over the past year as imports have surged. But an even larger pick-up in exports of other goods required to build... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Sep. 2026) The PMI readings for September were reassuring. Downward pressure on construction activity eased markedly, reflecting the fading impact of typhoon disruptions and a likely pick-up in fiscal spending... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed further to just 1.3% y/y in August. This reflects lingering typhoon disruptions and continued weakness in fiscal spending, with local governments... 28th September 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly President Xi’s US visit: Little beyond a short reprieve The lack of any tangible outcomes from the Trump-Xi summit, beyond a shorter-than-expected extension of the current trade truce, highlights the deep distrust between the two sides. While more... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Near-term relief but headwinds remain Stronger fiscal spending should lift growth over the final months of the year. But we expect growth to slow further over the medium term. 25th September 2026 · 16 mins read
China Economics Weekly President Xi’s US visit: What’s on the table? We doubt that next Thursday’s summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in Washington will deliver any major breakthroughs that change the trajectory of US-China relations. The two leaders will discuss a... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2026) August activity data showed a modest rebound in industrial output growth last month, driven by external demand and high-tech manufacturing. A smaller contraction in infrastructure investment suggests... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Growth in broad credit slowed to a fresh record low, reflecting weaker growth in both bank and non-bank financing. Most concerning is the continued weakness in household credit demand, with household... 14th September 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Another rare earths crunch China's rare earth exports have been falling ever since Presidents Trump and Xi met in May, despite US suggestions that China had committed to keep shipments flowing. There has been no public pushback... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2026) Inflation picked up again in August, largely reflecting renewed upward pressure from global oil prices. But the increase was concentrated in some energy-related sectors, while underlying domestic... 9th September 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s labour market is not as weak as it looks Headline employment data are giving an overly weak impression of China’s labour market. Our Labour Market Indicator points to still-firm cyclical conditions, while a structural shift in labour demand... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Aug. 2026) China’s trade growth remained robust in August, with both exports and imports continuing to grow at a rapid pace. Strong global demand for electronics remained an important support for exports. Import... 8th September 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China AI gap widens again The release of several new US models this week has pushed Chinese AI further away from the frontier. US AI labs appear to be eroding China's cost advantage too. But it is too soon to conclude that... 4th September 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC leans against RMB gains, sanction risks limited The premium between the renminbi spot rate and the PBOC’s daily fix is now at its largest in over a decade, a sign that the central bank is becoming more resistant to further appreciation. The PBOC is... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
