Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA to drag out easing cycle as caution prevails The RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged at its meeting this week came as a surprise to most. As it turns out, a majority of the Board preferred to wait for the full Q2 CPI data (due by end-July)... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Could the RBA stand pat next Tuesday? Some observers have argued that the ongoing calm in global markets may prompt the RBA to leave rates unchanged at its 8th July meeting, given its preference to move in a cautious manner. However, we... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will cut rates to 2.85% by early-2026 There are growing signs that Australia's economic recovery is struggling for momentum. Moreover, both CPI data and business surveys suggest that this weakness in activity is translating into softer... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Slowing migration may keep RBA in a dovish mood Australia's population growth has declined by nearly 1%-pt since its post-pandemic peak, driven in large part by a normalisation in international student arrivals. The drop in foreign student numbers... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Recovery appears to be stumbling in the Antipodes New survey data suggest that business conditions in Australia continued to deteriorate in May. Moreover, with firms also reporting a renewed easing in cost and price pressures, risks are tilting... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Weak economy will force RBNZ's hand When it cut rates by 25bp this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a somewhat cautious approach to policy setting going forward. However, the recent flow of data suggest that New Zealand... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t go overboard with cuts, NZ Budget falls flat In light of the RBA's dovish messaging at its meeting this week, we have revised down our terminal rate forecast from 3.60% to 3.35%. However, we doubt that the Bank will cut rates all the way to 3.10... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t claim victory in inflation fight just yet Although the RBA is almost certain to slash its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday, it will probably remain cautious about commiting to further policy easing. After all, business surveys... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA to keep calm even as waters grow choppy At first glance, it would seem that downside risks to activity and inflation are growing in Australia. The ABS' household spending indicator suggests that consumer spending slowed to a halt in Q1... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Inflation risks remain two-sided, Labor leads in polls With underlying inflation having returned to its 2-3% target range in Q1, the RBA is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting later this month. However, given that timely data point to... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: PMI data suggest limited impact from tariff turmoil Australia's Flash PMIs suggest that the initial impact of global trade tensions has been modest, with output remaining firmly in expansionary territory in April. What's more, with domestic demand... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t cut nearly as far as the RBNZ Markets remain optimistic that the RBA will cut its cash rate from 4.1% at present to below 3% by year-end. But with the labour market still tight and activity starting to rebound, we're sticking to... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Tariff fallout won’t send the RBA into panic mode With concerns growing that Trump's trade war won't leave Australia unscathed, investors now expect the RBA to cut rates by 125bp across its easing cycle. The rout in financial markets also appears to... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA could cut rates further, as headwinds mount Although the direct impact of US tariffs on the Australian economy is likely to be modest, we believe second-order effects could be more damaging, due to negative spillovers from key trading partners... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA remains on course to deliver shallow easing cycle With its eyes on the May general election, the Australian government has put forward an array of new spending measures in its 2025/26 Budget. However, we don't believe the scope of fiscal expansion is... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
