Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) The plunge in South African inflation to just 3.0% y/y in April is likely to be followed by further declines, allowing the central bank to cut interest rates further. We expect another 75bp of cuts in... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) The slight increase in Nigerian inflation in May, to 12.4% y/y, will probably be followed by further rises over the coming months, but we still think that more interest rate cuts lie in store later... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in the business activity component of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI shows that conditions in the sector improved in May, having come almost to a standstill in April. With manufacturing... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The business activity indicator of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI crashed to just 5.1 in April, highlighting the severity of the country’s lockdown. With the lockdown now easing, conditions should... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in South African inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in March will give the central bank more room for manoeuvre. Although yesterday’s announcement of a fiscal package by the... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar. 2020) The slight rise in Nigerian inflation in March, to 12.3% y/y, is unlikely to prevent policymakers from cutting their key rate in May to ease the country’s economic pain caused by the coronavirus. 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s PMI jumped in March, but only due to a statistical quirk in the compilation process. The underlying data suggest that the economy was, in fact, weakening even before the recent lockdown... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) Weak domestic demand in South Africa has narrowed the country’s current account deficit, which should provide some support to the rand and allow the SARB more space to loosen policy. We expect that... 5th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) While weak PMIs elsewhere in the EM world were partially due to spill over effects from the coronavirus, the sharp fall in the South African survey largely reflects domestic weaknesses. We suspect... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2019) Growth in Nigeria ticked up a notch in Q4, but there is still no sign of a broad-based economic recovery. We expect that the authorities will continue to enact unconventional stimulus policies later... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jan.) South African inflation jumped to the 4.5% y/y midpoint of policymakers’ target range in January, which strengthens our view that the current easing cycle will end after just one more cut. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Jan. 2020) The further rise in Nigerian inflation in January, to 12.1% y/y, suggests that border closures have continued to drive up food prices. This will limit the central bank’s scope to lower interest rates... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Dec.) The South African manufacturing sector’s terrible performance in December has set up a weak start to 2020. And, given that power cuts lasted into January, problems in the sector probably continued. 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped further in January, adding to the evidence that the economy remained very weak at the start of 2020. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) South African inflation strengthened in December, and we expect that it will continue to do so in Q1, bringing the current monetary easing cycle to an end after just one more 25bp rate cut. 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI edged lower in December, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4 and raising the prospect of another technical recession. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read