Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Activity Data (Sep.)

September’s activity data for South Africa suggest that the economy probably stagnated over Q3 as a whole. Some of the recent drags on the economy, such as loadshedding, are likely to ease in 2024 but...

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Activity Data (Aug.)

The batch of South African activity data for August was a mixed bag, but the overall picture is that the economy struggled for growth in Q3. And tight policy means that growth in 2024 will be modest...

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.4% y/y, in September supports our view that the Reserve Bank will only turn towards interest rate cuts from next year.

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.)

The small rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in August partly reflected a fresh pick-up in core price pressures, but we doubt that this will prompt the SARB to restart its...

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa GDP (Q2)

The 0.6% q/q rise in South Africa’s GDP in Q2 was stronger than expected but more timely indicators point to a weak start to Q3. And the backdrop of severe power cuts, tight policy and worsening terms...

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI strengthened in August, reversing the declines seen in recent months as loadshedding became less intense. Even so, the survey still points to extremely weak growth in...

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in July leaves it within touching distance of the mid-point of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range and means that...

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Activity Data (Jun.)

South Africa’s activity data for June suggest that the economy managed to eke out positive growth in Q2, but more timely indicators suggest that activity struggled to sustain this momentum at the...

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to an almost-18 year high of 24.1% y/y, as the removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira continue to push up prices. This fresh increase...

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell even further in July as power cuts intensified again and the outlook remains bleak – we remain comfortable with our forecast for the economy as a whole to...

South Africa Activity Data (May)

The worse-than-expected South African retail sales figures for May add to the raft of weak activity data and it looks like things may get even worse over the coming months. Coupled with figures...

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 5.4% y/y in June brings it back within the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range for the first time since April 2022 and means...

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell in June to its lowest level since mid-2021 and remains consistent with declines in output in the sector over the coming months. The survey also shows that price...

South Africa Consumer Prices (May)

The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 6.3% y/y, reinforces our view that the tightening cycle is over and that interest rates will be kept at 8.25% at next...

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (May)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to a fresh 17-year high of 22.4% y/y and the recent removal of fuel subsidies alongside yesterday’s devaluation of the naira mean that it is likely to surge to...