Commodities Weekly A good start to a bad year for commodity prices Most commodity prices increased this week, with coal prices leading the pack on the back of Indonesia’s ban on coal exports this month. That said, we don’t see commodity prices rising for much longer... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Slower growth in China to drag on prices in 2022 While high power prices and low stocks will support prices in the near term, we think that prices will pull back in the second half of 2022 as Chinese economic activity slows further and supply... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Omicron risks receding; energy still in short supply Two themes have dominated commodity markets at the turn of the year: the ongoing shortage of energy commodities and the global rise in cases of COVID-19. On the former, we think that shortages will... 7th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears giving way to supply concerns The experience of South Africa with the Omicron variant seems to have allayed investors’ fears over commodity demand. Indeed, the net long position held by investors in the oil futures market has... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Drawdown in stocks to reverse in 2022 Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen this year, as supply was interrupted by power rationing in China as well as the ongoing effects of COVID-19. However, now that power restrictions have been... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) Despite a y/y fall in global aluminium output in November, it is still up strongly year-to-date. And it is likely to rise again from here as power restrictions in China are lifted and high prices... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly More hawkish central banks may put a lid on prices It was a week of central bank decisions, culminating in ‘Super-Thursday’. The big picture is that central banks generally sounded more concerned about the rise in inflation, despite the ongoing spread... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Renewed surge in Chinese demand still seems unlikely We are sceptical that commodity demand growth in China is about to reignite, despite this week’s cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks and data showing surprisingly strong imports of... 10th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices still set for a downturn We doubt that the recent jump in China’s iron ore imports is indicative of increasing demand. In fact, we expect demand for iron ore in China to cool as construction activity continues to slow and the... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack The net effect of Omicron on commodities is not clear Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has... 7th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ sticks to its plan, no forecast change required Oil prices fell briefly on Thursday after OPEC+ decided to push ahead with its plan to raise oil output by 0.4m bpd a month, despite plunging oil prices since news of Omicron broke. Prices recovered... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Green transition to help charge cobalt prices Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly New COVID-19 variant could spark energy price falls Most commodity prices fell on Friday after South African scientists declared they had identified a new COVID-19 variant on Thursday which may be more transmissible. We think it’s still early days to... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) October’s IAI data suggest the easing of power restrictions in China has enabled greater utilisation rates at smelters, driving the global increase in output this month. We think that aluminium output... 22nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper supply set for further improvements Copper prices have soared since mid-2020 as demand raced ahead of supply. However, a strong supply response is now underway which, in tandem with cooling copper demand, will weigh on prices into 2022. 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
