Liam Peach

Liam Peach is a Senior Emerging Markets Economist leading our coverage of Emerging Europe and contributing to our Emerging Markets Overview service. Liam joined Capital Economics in 2017 and has developed a strong track record at forecasting the economies of Russia and Central and Eastern Europe. He regularly presents to clients and his views are frequently sought after by global media organisations, including the Financial Times, Bloomberg and the BBC. Liam previously worked as an economist at the UK Office for National Statistics. He holds a BSc in Economic and Econometrics from the University of Bristol and an MSc in Economics from City, University of London.

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

MNB to step up easing, inflation softens again in Israel

In Hungary, dovish comments from the central bank (MNB) deputy governor this week and recent softer-than-expected inflation data have prompted us to pencil in a larger 100bp interest rate cut at the...

19th January 2024 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Five key themes from Euromoney's CEE forum

The fading energy crisis and the falls in inflation and interest rates generated a more positive mood about the economic outlook at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European (CEE) forum in Vienna this...

18th January 2024 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Bank of Israel cuts rates, Turkey’s rebalancing in focus

Israel's central bank started its monetary easing cycle this week with a 25bp interest rate cut - a move that came a bit sooner than we'd expected. But inflation risks are greater than most anticipate...

5th January 2024 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The rise in Turkish inflation to 64.8% y/y in December was broadly in line with expectations and the breakdown provided some signs that underlying price pressures continue to soften. We think the...

3rd January 2024 2 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Is Turkey’s policy shift the real deal?

9th January 2024, 3:00PM GMT

The Erdogan government’s turn back to macroeconomic orthodoxy is showing early positive signs: inflation pressures have eased; the current account deficit has narrowed; and foreign investment has...

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

Financial risks easing, but still areas for concern

The more supportive global risk environment is helping to ease some financial strains across the EM world, but there are still pockets of vulnerability heading into 2024. Balance of payments positions...

19th December 2023 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Assessing Russia's war hit, change of guard in Poland

Analysis by the US Treasury Department published this week gained a lot of attention for highlighting that Russia’s economy is now 5% smaller due to the war and sanctions than it otherwise would have...

15th December 2023 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The larger-than-expected fall in Israeli inflation to 3.3% y/y in November suggests that the inflationary impact of the war and the sharp rise in government spending have been limited so far. This...

15th December 2023 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

15th December 2023 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

A closer look at the rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves

Turkey’s gross international reserves have hit a record high recently which, on the face of it, suggests that the policy U-turn since May has helped to diminish the country’s balance of payments...

14th December 2023 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Activity Data (Oct.)

13th December 2023 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The fall in Czech inflation to 7.3% y/y in November means that the start of a monetary easing cycle at next week’s policy meeting is still very much a close call. But at this stage we think it’s most...

11th December 2023 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The rise in Russian inflation to 7.5% y/y in November is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months as the economy continues to overheat. We think this CPI release supports the...

8th December 2023 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Tusk vs. Glapinski heating up, Russia's policy troubles

The debate around whether Polish central bank governor Adam Glapinski could be brought before the State Tribunal and be removed from his post took twists and turns this week. But at this stage the...

8th December 2023 6 mins read

Putin's economic challenges are many but surmountable as election looms

As Russia's economy rebounds from a 2.1% contraction in 2022, the key question will be how the economy copes with overheating, with supply-side constraints likely to curb growth, said Liam Peach...

8th December 2023 Reuters

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Inflation fight is far from over

Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to...

7th December 2023 25 mins read