Leah Fahy

Leah is an Assistant Economist and joined Capital Economics on the graduate scheme in September 2022. Prior to joining Capital, she completed a summer internship at CPP Investments with the International Europe team. Leah has a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University.

Event

Drop-In: 2024 EM Outlook – Big growth divergence in a big election year

11th January 2024, 3:30PM GMT

The past 12 months have seen marked divergence in growth across emerging markets economies, as well as the start of easing cycles among some of their central banks. How much will these trends…

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing ends the year on a soft note

The emerging markets manufacturing PMIs for December were a mixed bag. The headline index stagnated at the aggregate EM level and remained below 50 in over half of the countries in our sample. Price...

2nd January 2024 2 mins read

The Fed gifts the bond market, the EM growth outlook and that COP28 agreement

15th December 2023

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Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2023)

EM GDP growth has started to weaken, and we expect activity to enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. While some economies that underperformed this year will start to recover, many of the EMs...

15th December 2023 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

S. Africa and the impact of upcoming pension reform

The most immediate impact of South Africa’s pension reform, due in September 2024, is that contributors will be allowed early access to some of their retirement savings, which could provide a near...

14th December 2023 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

CBK supports the shilling, SA current account

The Kenyan central bank’s surprise 200bp interest rate hike, to 12.50%, on Tuesday was clearly aimed at shoring up the currency. There are other reasons to think that pressure on the shilling will...

8th December 2023 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2023)

Inflows into EM bond and equity markets have picked up over the past month, particularly in Turkey where optimism around the policy U-turn seems to be building. Capital flows into EMs may be bumpy in...

5th December 2023 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM PMIs edge up, but external demand remains weak

The emerging market manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag – although most headline indices edged up, they remained below 50 in over half the countries that we track, largely due to weak...

1st December 2023 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM disinflation entering a new phase

Following a temporary reversal in Q3, EM inflation has started to fall again in the last few months. While this is set to continue, we think it marks the start of a second phase in the EM disinflation...

27th November 2023 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2023)

EM GDP has proven stronger than expected this year, but we think growth will weaken in the coming months and come in below consensus in 2024. Despite recent upside surprises, inflation has resumed its...

21st November 2023 0 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Public debt risks remain acute in several Frontiers

Sovereign debt risks across Frontier Markets have eased slightly since last quarter. But dollar-bond spreads in Ethiopia have jumped following its request for debt-service suspension earlier this week...

16th November 2023 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2023)

Flows out of EM bond and equity markets have eased since early October, but we think the recent dollar weakness which has helped to support capital flows into EMs is unlikely to continue. The good...

10th November 2023 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Weak EM PMIs suggest demand is waning

Most EM manufacturing PMIs for October were weaker than expected, largely driven by sluggish domestic and external demand. This weakness has, at least, resulted in input and output price components...

2nd November 2023 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Weak EM PMIs suggest demand is waning

2nd November 2023 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Why has FDI into emerging economies slumped?

There has been a broad-based fall in foreign direct investment flows into the emerging world that, outside China, is mostly the result of a slowdown in global growth. FDI flows should stabilise over...

1st November 2023 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2023)

EM GDP has held up well this year, but we expect growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. Inflation has surprised to the upside recently, which will delay the start of interest rate cutting cycles...

19th October 2023 1 min read