Capital Daily We still think Treasury yields and the S&P 500 will fall this year Despite today’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, we continue to think that the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the next couple of quarters. 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We still forecast decent gains for China’s equities this year We think the economic recovery in China will support further gains in the country’s equity market. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect “risky” assets to fall later this year We think disappointing global growth will be a headwind for “risky” assets in developed markets during the second half of this year. 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Sovereign debt risks in a fracturing global economy 4th May 2023, 3:00PM BST EM sovereign debt problems have been thrust back into the spotlight after the latest World Bank and IMF meetings, with promises of a quicker resolution to restructurings in debt-distressed EMs. But...
Global Markets Update Taking stock of our Treasury and S&P 500 forecasts We think investors’ expectations for the Fed funds rate will fall a little by the end of this year, which will push the 10-year Treasury yield a bit lower by end-2023. But we doubt lower “risk-free”... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect strong gains for China’s equities this year Despite the generally muted market reaction to today’s strong data releases for China’s economy, we think the reopening rally in China’s equity market still has further to run this year. 18th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Amid banking turmoil, outlook for “risky” assets seems bleak The recent turmoil in the global banking sector have sent ripples through financial markets. So far, a full-blown financial crisis doesn’t seem likely to us, although clearly any escalation would add... 31st March 2023 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily What the Fed and BoE central bank meetings mean for markets With major central banks pressing ahead with rate hikes despite ongoing financial stability concerns, we think that the recent resilience of equity markets will prove to be short-lived even if, as we... 23rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect equities in EMs to continue to struggle Even if the banking sector turmoil doesn’t grow into a broader economic crisis, we still think equities in emerging markets will struggle over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms. 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Banking stress raises another dilemma for central banks We are resending this Stress Monitor to include clients of our Global Economics Service. The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened... 16th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy and sovereign bond yields in DMs We think long-dated sovereign bond yields will fall over the remainder of this year in the UK and Canada, and to a lesser extent in Australia. 9th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the struggles for equities in India will resume We think MSCI’s India Index will fall over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms, amid subdued domestic economic activity and a general deterioration in investors’ appetite for “risky”... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think China’s “reopening trade” has further to go We think the reopening rally in China’s equity market and currency has further to run this year. 1st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Robust Chinese data lifts EM stocks “The manufacturing data was quite strong from China and we actually even see further upsides from the recovery over there which would be beneficial to other emerging market indices,” Filippos... 1st March 2023 · Financial Post
EM Markets Chart Pack Rocky road may still be ahead for EM assets We think even if some of the recent headwinds that have buffeted emerging market (EM) assets fade, a slowdown in global growth might keep them under pressure in the near term. 28th February 2023 · 9 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Recession still a threat to risky assets in our view Investors seem to have become more worried about inflation recently, with evidence that the global economy is holding up better than expected suggesting underlying price pressures might prove more... 23rd February 2023 · 9 mins read
