The stagflationary effects of the leap in energy prices due to the Iran war mean that we expect CPI inflation to rise to about 3.5% around the turn of the year and real GDP to grow by just 0.9% in 2026 and by 1.0% in 2027. We think that would be consistent with interest rates staying at 3.75% for all of this year. What's more, with the labour market particularly weak, as shown by our proprietary UK labour market indicators, rates could still be cut in 2027, perhaps to 3.00%.