Japan Chart Pack BoJ at the barricades While inflation is still far lower in Japan than in most places, rapid increases in the prices of some everyday purchases have made it a political focus. A Nikkei poll following the Bank of Japan’s... 21st June 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Jubilee bank holiday makes life hard for the Bank of England By cutting GDP growth by about 0.3-0.4 percentage points (ppts) in Q2 and raising GDP growth by a similar amount in Q3, the impact of the extra bank holiday to mark the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee will... 21st June 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tighter global financing conditions, Zambia’s debt African financial markets are not insulated from the tightening of global external financing conditions, and recent currency weakness and rising sovereign bond yields in the region will only add to... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico outlook, Brazil GDP, Colombia election Given the Fed’s hawkish shift and the recent sell-off in the Mexican peso, we now think that Banxico will step up the pace of tightening with a 75bp rate hike next week, to 7.75%. Elsewhere, in Brazil... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed adds to growing external risks The 75bp interest rate hike by the US Fed this week and expectations for further large hikes in the coming months will have ripple effects across the region. It is likely that Hungary's central bank... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The muted 0.2% m/m rise in industrial production in May adds to the evidence that the economy is slowing. But there is still little in activity data to suggest a recession is on the horizon, or to... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why didn’t the BoE go further and what next? In some ways, given its concerns about the weakening in the real economy, the Bank of England's decision not to follow the Fed and raise rates by more than 25 basis points makes sense. But with more... 17th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB has done the easy bit, harder work is to come This week, the ECB arrested the sell-off in peripheral bond markets without announcing very much at all, but there’s only so long that markets will be soothed by encouraging words about a possible... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Consumption to increase despite low confidence Despite consumer confidence remaining extremely low, we now think household spending in the euro-zone will edge up in Q2. Excess savings and a tight labour market have helped to cushion the blow from... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken further, domestic demand picking up While the Bank of Japan was clearly in no mood today to give any ground to the bond traders testing the ceiling of Yield Curve Control, it would be even less keen to effectively shut down the JGB... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s hot labour market, Sri Lanka’s tourism woes The Korean labour market is continuing to heat up, increasing the chances that the central bank will tighten monetary policy further over the coming months. Meanwhile, a renewed slump in visitor... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP target unattainable, shipping disruption China’s statistics office is adept at massaging GDP data. But with many of the indicators that feed into GDP showing year-on-year contractions in April and May, even it won’t be able to deliver... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, food security and inflation Shortages of food supplies and surging prices have led some EMs to impose export restrictions on key agricultural products, a trend that threatens to become more prevalent and serve to keep prices... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit to persist India’s goods trade deficit didn’t widen in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – rather counter-intuitively for a major commodity importer. But that has now started to happen, and... 16th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Signs of Nigeria’s recovery decelerating further The latest data from Nigeria suggest that the economic rebound slowed further at the start of Q2, and we think that the recovery will remain lacklustre over the coming quarters. The weakness of the... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on capital controls in Turkey The recent falls in the Turkish lira have led to increased speculation that, with the CBRT showing no sign of willingness to raise interest rates, policymakers will be forced to turn to capital... 16th June 2022 · 6 mins read
