Asia Economics Update From energy to food: El Niño reshapes inflation risks Despite easing energy-driven inflation pressures, central banks in Asia are unlikely to rush to unwind recent rate hikes given the growing upside risks to food inflation from El Niño. 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Weak monsoon impact not only limited to agriculture India has just recorded its driest June in over a decade and that may prove a harbinger for the rest of the monsoon season on account of El Niño weather conditions. Deficient rain is already affecting... 3rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The AI boom, El Niño risks and the growth and policy outlook 1st July 2026, 9:00AM BST Asian economies should enjoy strong growth over the next year or so, supported by robust demand for AI-related products and lower energy prices.
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia shifts right, 301 tariffs, El Niño Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election increases the likelihood of a shift to more pro-market policymaking and improved relations with the US. But we... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Iran conflict impact extends beyond energy commodities The risks to commodity prices from the conflict in the Middle East extend beyond oil and natural gas with aluminium plants in the Gulf sustaining damage. That could keep aluminium prices higher than... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone food inflation should fall next year Food inflation in the euro-zone has picked up this year but we think that it will fall back in 2026. This would reinforce the disinflation that we expect from lower energy prices and slower wage... 17th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Outlook Metals to benefit in 2024 from green transition We expect most commodity prices to rise in 2024 as major central banks loosen monetary policy and economic activity starts to pick up. Meanwhile, China’s policymakers have taken steps to support the... 15th December 2023 · 31 mins read
Commodities Outlook Looser monetary policy to support prices in 2024 We expect most commodity prices to struggle over the rest of this year as developed economies flirt with recession, the US dollar remains strong and investor risk appetite moderates. That said, we... 26th September 2023 · 28 mins read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to tick up as textile demand strengthens We expect that the global cotton market will be finely balanced in 2023/24 as demand picks up and supply falls across key producers. We forecast that the US cotton price will rise gradually from here... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation threat is far from over We think vegetable price inflation will have remained elevated last month despite a moderation in prices over the past couple of weeks. What’s more, India recorded the driest August in more than a... 1st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to ease back, but remain elevated We think that Arabica and Robusta coffee prices will remain historically high over the next 12 months or so, but especially the Robusta price owing to greater El Niño-related supply risks. With that... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Lower agriculturals supply will mean higher prices for longer The outlook for global agricultural supply has deteriorated since the start of the year as a result of extreme weather, the end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the prospect of an El Niño weather... 4th August 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of El Niño for global markets We think El Niño poses downside risks to the prices of emerging market assets, in general. But even if the effect in aggregate wasn’t all that large, there are several vulnerable sectors where such an... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: no more rate hikes, El Niño the key risk 2nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly El Niño + global warming = long-term EM headache “The Boy” is back Much ink has been spilled – not least by ourselves – on the potential impacts of the return of El Niño conditions on commodities and economies. It’s fair to say that some of the... 27th July 2023 · 6 mins read
