Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Outlook Metals to benefit in 2024 from green transition We expect most commodity prices to rise in 2024 as major central banks loosen monetary policy and economic activity starts to pick up. Meanwhile, China’s policymakers have taken steps to support the... 15th December 2023 · 31 mins read
Commodities Outlook Looser monetary policy to support prices in 2024 We expect most commodity prices to struggle over the rest of this year as developed economies flirt with recession, the US dollar remains strong and investor risk appetite moderates. That said, we... 26th September 2023 · 28 mins read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to tick up as textile demand strengthens We expect that the global cotton market will be finely balanced in 2023/24 as demand picks up and supply falls across key producers. We forecast that the US cotton price will rise gradually from here... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation threat is far from over We think vegetable price inflation will have remained elevated last month despite a moderation in prices over the past couple of weeks. What’s more, India recorded the driest August in more than a... 1st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to ease back, but remain elevated We think that Arabica and Robusta coffee prices will remain historically high over the next 12 months or so, but especially the Robusta price owing to greater El Niño-related supply risks. With that... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Lower agriculturals supply will mean higher prices for longer The outlook for global agricultural supply has deteriorated since the start of the year as a result of extreme weather, the end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the prospect of an El Niño weather... 4th August 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of El Niño for global markets We think El Niño poses downside risks to the prices of emerging market assets, in general. But even if the effect in aggregate wasn’t all that large, there are several vulnerable sectors where such an... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: no more rate hikes, El Niño the key risk 2nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly El Niño + global warming = long-term EM headache “The Boy” is back Much ink has been spilled – not least by ourselves – on the potential impacts of the return of El Niño conditions on commodities and economies. It’s fair to say that some of the... 27th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update El Niño likely to add to supply woes The widely-differing impact of El Niño across continents means that the net effect on global mining output is not clear cut. On balance, though, the likelihood is that it will lead to lower ore output... 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño unlikely to fire up the price of all staples El Niño is coming but the picture is more nuanced than one of doom and gloom for global production of all crop types. For corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, larger harvests in some regions can outweigh... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño presents mixed risks for Lat Am The likelihood of an El Niño event over the second half of the year raises the risk that activity is disrupted, inflation falls more slowly than we currently expect, and central banks’ monetary easing... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: El Niño – Gauging the risks to economies and markets 1689775200 The World Meteorological Organisation has announced a 90% probability of an El Niño event in the second half of the year, threatening more extreme climate events.
Global Economics Update El Niño risks concentrated in EMs The likelihood of an El Niño event in the second half of this year adds to upside risks to global inflation and downside risks to activity. For the advanced economies, higher prices of agricultural... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update The implications of a severe El Niño for India A severe El Niño event could be the harbinger of weak monsoon rains in India. This wouldn’t have as big an economic impact as it would have had a couple of decades ago. But it would harm employment... 10th July 2023 · 4 mins read
