The economic impact of COVID-19

The success of the Eat Out to Help Out (EOHO) scheme suggests that fears about the virus are not preventing activity. But as meals out only seem to be popular due to a heavy discount, consumers are still behaving cautiously. This restraint is part of the reason why we don’t...

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) further expanded its quantitative easing programme at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory next year.

We think that it will take over a year for oil product consumption to recover to pre-virus levels. This in turn will limit crude oil demand for the next 18 months or so and any near-term price gains.