US Chart Pack Economic growth to remain muted in H2 The incoming activity data now show clearer signs of weakness, particularly in the most interest-rate sensitive components of spending. But there are still few signs of that moderation morphing into a... 21st July 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears overdone The surge in interest rates, plunge in the stock market and weakness of consumer confidence have fuelled fears of an impending recession, but there is still little sign of that in the incoming... 23rd June 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery to slow from here The slightly disappointing second-quarter GDP data released this week and another dovish press conference from Chair Jerome Powell strengthen our belief that the Fed is unlikely to begin tapering its... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) Although the ISM manufacturing index didn’t fall as far as feared in June, the decline in the more forward-looking new orders component suggests the worst is still to come. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Any G-20 trade truce unlikely to last If the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 tomorrow is successful, we would expect both sides to agree to resume negotiations and hold off on imposing new tariffs. But, given the... 28th June 2019 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market succumbing to economic slowdown Our model points to a subdued 125,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, suggesting that the labour market is succumbing to the broader slowdown in economic growth. The unemployment rate should remain... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (May) The 1.3%m/m decline in durable goods was largely a reflection of Boeing’s problems following the grounding of its 737 Max, with the rebound in underlying orders and shipments suggesting that business... 26th June 2019 · 2 mins read
