RBI Watch RBI Watch: Tariffs would reinforce case for further easing The recent sharp drop in headline CPI inflation means that the Reserve Bank is primed to cut the repo rate again at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 9th April. And barring a debilitating... 1st April 2025 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: New governor, new direction for monetary policy The announcement of large liquidity injections into the banking sector demonstrates how the priorities of the RBI – led by new Governor Sanjay Malhotra – have shifted from containing inflation to... 29th January 2025 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Inflation jump to keep MPC on the sidelines The hotter-than-expected consumer price inflation data over the past couple of months will be enough to convince a majority of MPC members that conditions are not yet right to begin easing policy. As... 27th November 2024 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch New-look MPC will wait until December to cut rates Little is known about the monetary policy views of the Reserve Bank of India’s incoming MPC members, but the fact that two of the committee’s doves have been replaced suggests that the repo rate will... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Policy loosening to begin by year-end The upside inflation surprise in June means it is all but guaranteed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Thursday 8th... 1st August 2024 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Change in policy stance looks imminent The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will almost certainly keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Friday, 7th June. But we think that the committee will lay the... 30th May 2024 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Policy pivot creeping closer We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 5 th April. Further ahead, we think the central bank will start cutting rates in... 27th March 2024 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Policy pivot still several months away We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8 th February. Further ahead, the strength of the economy and still-elevated... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to loosen policy until H2 2024 We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 8 th December. Further ahead, robust economic growth and upside risks to... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Late to the EM rate-cutting party We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 6 th October. Further ahead, our view is that the RBI will begin loosening... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Food inflation surge muddies the policymaking waters The recent surge in food price inflation means the RBI’s policy decision on Thursday 10 th August is now less of a formality than it had appeared. On balance, we still think that the MPC will keep the... 2nd August 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch RBI is done tightening; cuts to come onto agenda soon We think the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8th June. And while the door will be kept ajar for a resumption in the hiking cycle over the coming months, we... 1st June 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch April hike likely, but cuts to come onto agenda soon With the turmoil in the global banking system appearing to have eased and inflation still above the RBI’s 2-6% target range, we think the MPC will push ahead with a final 25bp hike to the repo rate... 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to signal the end of tightening cycle With inflation now having clearly passed the peak and domestic demand showing signs of softening, we think the MPC will mark the end of the tightening cycle with a final 25bp hike to the repo rate (to... 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Pace of tightening likely to slow With inflation having passed the peak and domestic demand showing signs of softening, we expect the MPC to slow the pace of monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to the repo rate at the conclusion of... 29th November 2022 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch Staying the course, for now We expect the MPC to continue frontloading policy tightening with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.90%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on Friday 30th September. Beyond next week, we... 22nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
