RBI Watch Late to the EM rate-cutting party We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 6 th October. Further ahead, our view is that the RBI will begin loosening... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Food inflation surge muddies the policymaking waters The recent surge in food price inflation means the RBI’s policy decision on Thursday 10 th August is now less of a formality than it had appeared. On balance, we still think that the MPC will keep the... 2nd August 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch RBI is done tightening; cuts to come onto agenda soon We think the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8th June. And while the door will be kept ajar for a resumption in the hiking cycle over the coming months, we... 1st June 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch April hike likely, but cuts to come onto agenda soon With the turmoil in the global banking system appearing to have eased and inflation still above the RBI’s 2-6% target range, we think the MPC will push ahead with a final 25bp hike to the repo rate... 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to signal the end of tightening cycle With inflation now having clearly passed the peak and domestic demand showing signs of softening, we think the MPC will mark the end of the tightening cycle with a final 25bp hike to the repo rate (to... 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Pace of tightening likely to slow With inflation having passed the peak and domestic demand showing signs of softening, we expect the MPC to slow the pace of monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to the repo rate at the conclusion of... 29th November 2022 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch Staying the course, for now We expect the MPC to continue frontloading policy tightening with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.90%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on Friday 30th September. Beyond next week, we... 22nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Frontloaded tightening to continue We expect the MPC to continue frontloading policy tightening with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.40%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on 5 th August. Beyond next week, we think the... 28th July 2022 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to frontload monetary tightening We think the MPC will follow its off-cycle rate hike last month with a 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.90%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on Wednesday 8 th June. Beyond next week, the... 2nd June 2022 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch Growth-focussed MPC will need to tighten before long Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, MPC members have emphasised the need for monetary policy to mitigate the downside risks to economic growth. It therefore seems likely that interest rates will... 30th March 2022 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch Tightening to begin with reverse repo hike After months of incremental moves, we think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will take a decisive step towards policy tightening by hiking the reverse repo rate at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on... 3rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to hold rates in face of Omicron uncertainty Whereas many EM central banks have been hiking rates aggressively, the RBI has been taking only baby steps towards policy tightening over the past couple of months. And the emergence of the Omicron... 1st December 2021 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Rate hikes remain a distant prospect Policy rates are highly likely to be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on Friday 8 th October, particularly given the recent drop in inflation. The committee might... 29th September 2021 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch RBI in no rush to tighten Policy rates are highly likely to be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 6 th August, particularly given that inflation now appears to have peaked. Further ahead, we... 29th July 2021 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch Policy to remain loose for a long time yet We agree with financial markets and the analyst consensus that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 4 th June, particularly given that the worst of... 27th May 2021 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to follow its EM peers EM monetary policy has turned decidedly more hawkish in recent weeks. But, with a renewed surge COVID-19 infections a downside risk to India’s recovery, we don’t think the Reserve Bank will be joining... 29th March 2021 · 6 mins read
