Paul Dales, UK economist at research company Capital Economics, said that, while the economic picture had been “flattered” by the very strong numbers at the start of the year, the broader outlook remained surprisingly robust given the Iran war-linked surge in oil, gas and electricity prices. He predicted the UK economy would expand by 1.2 per cent over the course of 2026, just shy of last year’s 1.4 per cent. That compares with the UK’s potential growth rate of about 1.5 per cent, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the fiscal watchdog. “The main story is the economy has been surprisingly resilient to the energy price shock; it is a moderately positive story,” Dales said.