Canada Economics Weekly Budget unlikely to move the needle for interest rates Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s pledge to create the conditions needed for lower interest rates means the government is unlikely to announce much new near-term spending in Budget 2024 next week... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rising home listings won’t derail our price forecast We think that reports of a wave of new resale supply coming onto the market are overblown. While the number of homes being listed for sale has increased compared to last year, it is still low by... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the... 15th March 2024 · 18 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024. 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Regulatory changes won’t affect house price outlook The Reserve Bank of New Zealand launched a consultation on changes to its macroprudential framework last week. In our view, the proposed tweaks are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the housing... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Stubborn rental inflation won’t prevent RBA rate cuts In recent months, there have been growing concerns that the rapid rise in rental inflation will force the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates higher for longer. To be sure, leading indicators... 17th January 2024 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia Housing Watch Although house prices in Melbourne have started to fall anew, we doubt that they are the canary in the coal mine. A persistent shortfall in housing supply should ensure that house prices across most... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Freeland avoids pouring more fuel on the inflation fire Faced with much higher interest costs, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland outlined very little in the way of new spending measures in the Fall Economic Statement today. Most of the focus was on non... 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Prices to bottom out, but activity will remain soft Surprisingly resilient demand, high inflation, and limited supply mean a severe drop in house prices will be avoided. With the peak in mortgage rates now behind us and the labour market in good shape... 21st November 2023 · 17 mins read
China Economics Weekly State taking a bigger role in homebuilding Local governments are stepping up the construction of public housing, providing a partial offset to the downturn in developer homebuilding. One consequence is that the privatization of China’s housing... 17th November 2023 · 5 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q4 2023) London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Effectiveness of Mortgage Guarantee varies by region The proposed extension to the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme could prove a good counter-cyclical policy in areas where house prices are relatively low. But the scheme has far less impact in London and the... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can Labour move the dial on housing supply? Labour has made housing a major theme of its conference, and the party’s attitude towards New Towns and social housing means that the next election could prove a turning point in the structure of the... 10th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Homeownership increasingly unattainable Buying a first home has become increasingly difficult over the past 30 years. A high income is still essential, but other circumstances such as whether the individual is buying as part of a joint... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Revisiting our estimates of lossmaking rental properties Mortgage rates have risen to a level that could cause costs on a fifth of rental homes to exceed the rent. That is likely to lead to a significant number of forced rental property sales, which will... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q3 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 10th July 2023 · 1 min read
