UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Apr. 2025)

The 0.3% m/m rise in Halifax house prices (consensus forecast -0.1% m/m, CE 0.0% m/m) provides tentative evidence that the falls in house prices are already in the past. That lends some support to our...

8th May 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr. 2025)

The housing market should pull out of its current funk in the coming months even if the Bank of England were to suggest later today that interest rates won’t fall as fast as the financial markets...

8th May 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

UK single-family homes an attractive option for investors

Single-family homes have outperformed other residential sectors over the past four years as a race for space and stretched homebuyer affordability have supported demand, at the same time as developers...

7th May 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Apr. 25)

The headline CIPS construction PMI edged up to 46.6 in April, from 46.4 in March. That left the balance below 50 and consistent with a contracting construction sector.

7th May 2025 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Outlook

US Housing Outlook: Market in need of rate relief that is not coming

President Trump’s inflationary trade and immigration policies leave no clear path to the lower borrowing costs that the housing market desperately needs. A tariff-driven resurgence in inflation will...

2nd May 2025 · 15 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

UK Housing Outlook: Housing relatively well insulated from Trump tariffs

While the more uncertain global backdrop due to the new US tariffs regime means we have become more confident in our below-consensus UK GDP forecast, the prospect of falling mortgage rates suggests UK...

1st May 2025 · 17 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Mar. 2025)

March’s money and lending data suggest households were starting to spend more cautiously even before the full hit to consumer confidence from the heightened uncertainty caused by the new US tariffs...

1st May 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Weak housing market starting to weigh on inflation

Stretched housing affordability continues to keep a lid on house price growth. And if we’re right that the RBA will only lower rates by another 50bp, it will remain a headwind. But with the housing...

1st May 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (Apr. 2025)

April’s bigger-than-expected 0.6% m/m fall in Nationwide house prices (consensus forecast 0.0% m/m, Capital Economics -0.1% m/m) isn’t too surprising as most of it probably reflects home purchases...

30th April 2025 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

The implications of lumber tariffs

While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that...

29th April 2025 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2025)

February’s 0.4% m/m rise in house prices is still a bit stronger than the timely leading indicators - like rising months’ supply and longer average time on market - would suggest. However, along with...

29th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Is Japan’s rent inflation about to take off?

Our base case is that faster growth in household incomes will result in the recent pick-up in rent inflation broadening from major cities to the rest of the country. However, there’s a risk that...

28th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Egypt’s new budget, Saudi fiscal tightening & real estate

Egypt’s draft FY2025/26 Budget reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal austerity which should put the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downwards path. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s government...

24th April 2025 · 7 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Mar. 2025)

The fall in existing home sales in March serves as a good reminder that more home listings alone are not enough to revive the market. Affordability also has to meaningfully improve which, based on our...

24th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s...

24th April 2025 · 1 min read