Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets... 22nd September 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Interest rate hold won’t provide immediate relief Despite ending the interest rate hiking cycle today, the Monetary Policy Committee succeeded in convincing financial markets that interest rates will remain high for some time. As market interest rate... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Sales fall back to January lows The 0.7% m/m fall back in existing home sales in August reflects falling mortgage borrowing and took sales back close to the low levels recorded in January. Our view... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% until mid-2024. While transactions... 19th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Housing starts fell sharply across both the single-family and multifamily sectors in August, suggesting that construction has now reached a turning point. We expect this downward trend to continue for... 19th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Sep.) House price inflation turned positive in August, but the smaller monthly price gain combined with signs of easing demand and increasing supply show that the housing market continues to cool. 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment and single-family REIT divergence to persist The recent outperformance of single-family REITs versus apartment REITs appears to be down to differences in the capital value outlook for the sectors, rather than any major difference in rental... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Too soon to conclude property easing has failed It’s been two weeks since Chinese regulators announced a major easing of property controls and so far there hasn’t been a meaningful turnaround in new home sales at the national level. But many cities... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.) Depressed activity remains consistent with falling house prices. The further deterioration of the RICS survey figures in August suggest the peak in mortgage rates seen in July are continuing to... 13th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update New home sales can’t defy gravity for much longer New home sales have brushed off a collapse in overall housing demand, rising 23% in the first half of 2023. More competitive pricing will be providing some support to sales, but the primary factor is... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update High rates restrain lending and push up arrears The Q2 Mortgage Lenders and Administrators statistics from the Bank of England showed that higher rates are limiting lending and making it more difficult than ever for single-income households to get... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum... 7th September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Real house prices hit seven-year low According to Halifax, house prices are up by 20% compared to 2019 even after their recent falls. But adjusted for inflation they slipped to a seven-year low in August. High mortgage rates point to a... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Aug 2023) The steep fall in the Halifax House Price Index in August confirmed that the further leg down in house prices we have been forecasting has materialised. If we are right to think that mortgage rates... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand Mortgage applications for home purchase continued to slip in August, recording the largest monthly fall since February. This latest drop has kept... 6th September 2023 · 1 min read
