Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Event Drop-In: German election 2025 – The new government’s domestic and global challenges 1740391200 Will the federal election outcome bring any clarity to Germany’s existential economic and political questions?
Europe Economic Outlook Low growth, low inflation, low rates We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening... 16th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Our senior economists hosted an online briefing to discuss the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024.
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Europe Economic Outlook Economy slowing again The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The core economies are the weakest, led by Germany which is probably in another technical... 18th September 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB rate cuts will do little to boost growth The euro-zone will remain close to recession until the second half of this year and the subsequent recovery is likely to be weak. Household real incomes will pick up only slowly and consumers will be... 15th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession and rate cuts The euro-zone will remain in or close to recession in the first half of 2024 as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is... 12th December 2023 · 30 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Tightening cycle not yet over The outlook for economic activity in the Nordics and Switzerland remains poor. GDP is already contracting sharply in Sweden and we think Norway and Switzerland will only narrowly avoid recessions... 14th April 2023 · 12 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession will do little to dampen price pressures We think the euro-zone is now at the start of a recession, driven by high inflation, tightening financial conditions and weak external demand, and anticipate two quarters of contraction followed by a... 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Tightening cycles have further to run Prospects for economic activity have deteriorated further in recent months as headwinds to growth have become stronger. Inflation looks set to remain high for longer, eroding households’ real incomes... 25th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Deeper recession and more persistent inflation The euro-zone is on the cusp of a significant recession due to a severe squeeze on households’ real incomes, rising interest rates and weak external demand. We now think GDP will fall for the next... 20th October 2022 · 30 mins read
