Energy Focus Introducing our long-term energy market forecasts The global energy market is in the early days of a radical redesign due to the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In this Focus, we introduce our long-term energy market forecasts, which are... 27th April 2023 · 14 mins read
Energy Focus Lessons from the EU’s carbon permit market This year, the EU announced reforms to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which, if introduced, would boost the price of each carbon permit and ultimately help the bloc to rapidly reduce its... 10th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Commodities Focus The impact of renewables on energy commodities We think that the adoption rate of renewable electricity will accelerate in the decades ahead, which should contribute to a near-continuous decline in demand for coal. Demand for natural gas should... 26th August 2021 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus The future of European natural gas pipelines Europe’s natural gas pipeline network is already extensive, and we think that it is going to get bigger in the coming decades. Existing pipelines in Turkey are set to be expanded and new pipelines... 22nd February 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Overview What a Biden victory could mean for commodities A victory for the Democratic party in November’s presidential election has several potential implications for commodity markets. Very broadly, Joe Biden’s pledge to actively promote decarbonisation of... 30th October 2020 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus COVID-19 to hasten peak oil demand In this Focus, we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030. As a result, we... 8th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Energy Focus Towards liberalisation in the global LNG market In our view, the scale of energy demand destruction caused by the coronavirus pandemic has made the liberalisation of the global LNG market start to look inevitable. While pressure has been mounting... 21st August 2020 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Energy Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus Measuring the risk premium in the oil price The September attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia re-ignited discussion of the “risk premium” in the oil price. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, we have created a methodology... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Middle East Economics Focus Assessing the potential impact of a US-Iran war War with the US would cause a collapse in Iran’s economy that would directly knock around 0.3%-pts off global GDP – equal to the damage from the US-China trade war so far. More important to the rest... 20th September 2019 · 23 mins read
Energy Focus A US-Iran conflict would push oil prices above $150 Mounting geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have prompted fears of a full-blown military war in the Gulf region. The most important impact would clearly be the loss of life. From the... 11th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Energy Focus Is the sun setting on the oil market? Slowing economic growth and rapidly rising fuel efficiency, partly due to a surge in the number of electric vehicles, mean that growth in demand for oil will slow and eventually peak over the next... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can game theory tell us about OPEC’s decisions? Contrary to almost all expectations, compliance with OPEC’s output quotas has been good so far. However, game theory suggests that higher oil prices increase the pay-off from cheating on the deal... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Is the recent fall in oil prices a taste of things to come? Surging supply and slowing demand growth are likely to push the global market back into a small surplus in 2018 which should put further downward pressure on oil prices over the next two years... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can the oil market learn from coal’s demise? The dramatic rise in renewable power has led to a sharp reduction in demand for coal and, until recently at least, had pushed coal prices down by more than 50% since 2011. A rapid rise in alternative... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
