Weakest growth in a decade

We expect economic growth across Emerging Asia to remain weak this year, with many countries set to grow at their slowest pace in a decade. China’s economy has stabilised in recent months thanks in large part to a resilient property sector. But with headwinds from cooling global demand and US tariffs likely to intensify, we anticipate a renewed slowdown over the coming quarters. Prospects are better in India, where policy support is being stepped up following the sharp slowdown in the first quarter. We expect growth there to recover gradually over the coming year. For the rest of the region, although weak global demand will continue to weigh on exports, looser fiscal and monetary policy mean growth should be close to bottoming out. In aggregate terms, we think GDP growth in Emerging Asia will slow from 5.5% last year to 5.0% in 2019 and 2020.