China Economics Focus What to expect at the Third Plenum The Third Plenum may conclude with a pledge of comprehensive reform in areas spanning the private sector, manufacturing, innovation, social security, economic management and more. That may excite hope... 18th June 2024 · 13 mins read
China Economics Weekly Europe leaves the road open for China’s EV-makers China protested the European Commission’s imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s overseas lending push has stalled Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global... 16th May 2024 · 15 mins read
China Economics Update US tariffs tighten the ratchet again The tariffs announced today on US imports from China won’t cause much direct economic damage since trade in the affected goods is already low. But US economic sanctions on China seem to act like a... 14th May 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s export success also due to weakness at home China’s leadership argues that the country’s export success in industries like auto production is a reflection of its technological strength. It understandably doesn’t want to focus on another factor... 8th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update What to make of the surge in China’s carbon price? The sharp rise in the price of carbon under China’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) this year, to a record high, underlines that Beijing sees carbon pricing as a key part of its emissions-reduction... 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Will China devalue the renminbi? Chinese policymakers won’t risk reliving the turmoil of 2015 by engineering a sudden devaluation of the renminbi. They may allow the currency to weaken gradually over the coming years to help industry... 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus Overcapacity will keep inflation near zero Most analysts expect China’s inflation rate to rebound to around 2% by 2026. In contrast, we think that persistent imbalances between supply and demand will keep it close to zero for the foreseeable... 30th April 2024 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: Global AI spending will drive rapid growth Taiwan will be one of the main beneficiaries of a lengthy global AI investment boom. We expect its economy to growth much faster over the rest of this decade than it did during the 2010s. 9th April 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Focus Property construction correction has barely begun The drag from the unavoidable structural decline in China’s property sector has only just begun. Property sales and project starts have collapsed. But property construction activity has retreated only... 6th March 2024 · 14 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2024 The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
China Economics Focus Trump tariffs: round two would be more damaging Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if... 23rd February 2024 · 22 mins read
China Economics Focus Still unbalanced, still unsustainable Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In... 22nd January 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The economic impact of AI in emerging markets The AI revolution will make EM income convergence – or “catch-up growth” – harder as richer economies are better equipped to deploy the technology on a wide scale. It poses a particular headwind to... 2nd November 2023 · 13 mins read