Global Economics

Marcel Thieliant joined Capital Economics in June 2013. Marcel runs our Australia and New Zealand Service as well as our Japan Service from our Singapore office. Marcel previously worked for six years at Credit Suisse Private Bank, covering Asian and European economies. He has a Master’s degree in Economics from the University of St. Gallen and is a CFA charterholder.

Focus Economics named Marcel the #1 Overall Forecaster for both Australia and New Zealand in 2020 and again in 2021. Marcel also won the Consensus Economics 2020 Forecast Accuracy Award for Australia

Articles published by Marcel Thieliant

• BoJ unlikely to lift interest rates anytime soon
• Australia’s consumer exuberance won’t last
• BoJ still facing no inflation pressure
• Our key calls for 2022
• Recovery in industrial activity will run out of steam
• Australia – Omicron will add to upward pressure on inflation
• Key calls for 2022
• BoJ won’t join hawkish shift by other central banks
• Australia – Government yet to deliver pre-election spending boost
• Australia Labour Market (Nov.)
• Tankan (Q4 2021)
• Federal fiscal resilience masks state weakness
• Australia moving closer to digital Aussie dollar
• RBA to hike rates by less than markets anticipate
• Participation rate set to fall further
• Omicron could add to inflationary pressure
• Australia International Trade (Oct. 2021)
• Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)
• Australia GDP (Q3 2021)
• Market pricing on RBA still too optimistic
• Japan Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)
• Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much
• Australia – Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)
• Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21)
• Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2021)
• Australia – Rate hikes will result in housing downturn
• Bank of Japan not losing control of money market
• More cash handouts on the way
• RBA recapitalisation would lift public debt
• Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct. 2021)
• Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Sep. 2021)
• Virus caution by the elderly not a big downside risk
• Australia- The impact of rate hikes on household finances
• Patient RBA set to hike rates only gradually
• Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.)
• Fiscal policy will continue to support the recovery
• RBA set to ditch yield target next week
• Japan Retail Sales (Sep. 2021)
• RBA’s dovish view increasingly under pressure
• Rising prices won’t prevent rebound in consumption
• Carmakers will struggle even after shortages abate
• Australia- Wage growth will approach 3% by end-2022
• Rising inflationary pressures to prompt tightening
• Australia Labour Market (Sep.)
• Structural slowdown in China a key threat to Australia
• Why is inflation still so low in Japan?
• RBA’s dovish stance set to be challenged
• Conditions for strong recovery finally in place
• Australia- Sustained high inflation will prompt rate hikes in 2023
• Soaring food and energy prices to keep inflation high
• Supply shortages set to hold back manufacturers
• Tankan (Q3 2021)
• RBA set to hike in 2023
• APRA to impose lending restrictions by mid-2022
• Japan Flash PMIs (Sep. 2021)
• Rising household debt will limit scope for rate hikes
• New Bank of Japan Governor unlikely to lift rates
• What does deglobalisation mean for Japan?
• Australia- Shipping costs to boost inflation next year
• Struggling to generate inflation even now
• Australia Labour Market (Aug.)
• Japan External Trade (Aug. 2021)
• Australia- What to expect from a monetary policy review
• Light at the end of the tunnel
• RBA may only hike in 2023
• Race for next PM wide open after Suga’s resignation
• RBA to stay the course
• Australia GDP (Q2 2021)
• Japan Retail Sales (Jul. 2021)
• Japan Flash PMIs (Aug. 2021)
• Australia Wage Price Index (Q2)
• Japan External Trade (Jul. 2021)
• RBA may be too pessimistic about price pressures
• Calls for more draconian restrictions growing
• Japan Wages & Household Spending (Jun. 2021)
• Australia – International Trade (Jun. 2021)
• Three key points about New Zealand’s labour market
• Hawkish RBA to hike rates in early-2023
• What would a hard lockdown mean for Japan?
• Activity to rebound in fourth quarter
• RBA to delay tapering to November
• Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2021)
• Australia- How inflationary is the border closure?
• Japan Flash PMIs (Jul. 2021)
• RBA to push back taper
• Australia – Vaccine rollout has yet to alter health situation
• Bank shifting focus away from emergency response
• Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom
• Australia Labour Market (Jun.)
• New Zealand- End of asset purchases signals rates will rise soon
• Higher vaccine supply will render lockdowns obsolete
• GDP to rebound in Q3 despite restrictions in Tokyo
• RBA’s central scenario may signal rate hikes soon
• Pandemic unlikely to herald period of higher inflation
• Faster vaccine campaign allows rapid rebound
• RBA to hike rates in early-2023
• Manufacturing bottlenecks may be easing
• Australia International Trade (May 2021)
• Japan Industrial Production (May 2021)
• Flexible QE paves way for tapering in November
• Australia – Is the strength in employment an accounting illusion?
• Vaccine rollout at risk of stalling
• RBA to start hiking in early-2023
• RBA may make QE more flexible
• Solid Q1 GDP more than makes up for Q2 weakness
• Industry to benefit from recovery in capital spending
• The impact of the pandemic on inflation
• Australia GDP (Q1 2021)
• RBA will expand QE by another $100bn next month
• RBNZ signals policy tightening next year
• RBA to extend QE in July
• Japan Flash PMIs (May)
• Australia Labour Market (Apr.)
• Producer price jump unlikely to boost inflation much
• GDP (Q1 Preliminary)
• Mining investment boom 2.0 unlikely
• Budget signals permanently larger public spending
• Wage growth set to remain contained
• Australia – Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2021)
• QE to continue beyond September
• Australia – Pandemic unlikely to result in long-term scarring
• RBA set to extend QE in July
• Japan Labour Market & Industrial Production (Mar. 2021)
• Can banks withstand rising corporate defaults?
• RBA still likely to extend bond purchases further
• Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2021)
• Kuroda’s term to end with inflation still below target
• Domestic travel fuelling recovery
• New Zealand – Implications of a trade war with China
• Bank preparing for prolonged hold
• Australia – Higher capital weights won’t stymie credit growth
• Fourth virus wave to slow recovery
• Tighter monetary policy on the horizon
• Australia – Labour Market (Mar.)
• RBA underlines determination to keep policy loose
• Bank likely to defer widening of tolerance band
• Why Japan isn’t suffering supply disruptions
• New Zealand – Border closure to knock 2% off GDP by end-2022
• RBA taking higher bond yields in its stride
• Australia – Trade conflict with China knocking 0.5% off GDP
• Fiscal support not quite as large as most think
• RBA to expand QE again in June
• Mixed outlook for bond yields
• Policy to remain looser for longer
• Australia Wage Price Index (Q4)
• Wider tolerance band wouldn’t signal tighter policy
• Pandemic-driven staff shortages could lift wage growth
• Economy entered lockdown with strong momentum
• Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 2021)
• Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2021)
• GDP (Q4 Preliminary)
• Australia – Employment in hardest-hit sectors set to bounce back
• Australia International Trade (Dec. 2020)
• Australia – Dwellings investment to rebound this year
• RBA may extend QE one more time
• RBA may end QE by mid-year
• Underlying inflation on the rise
• RBA may end QE in April
• Australia – Labour market scarring may prompt extension of QE
• Labour market to keep surprising to the upside
• Japan Flash PMIs (Jan. 2021)
• Review unlikely to herald major policy changes
• Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back
• Doubts about vaccination strategy, soaring vacancies
• Bank unlikely to ease more in response to virus wave
• Vaccines to hasten recovery despite third virus wave
• Second lockdown will be less damaging than the first
• Output may keep rising despite state of emergency
• The impact of China’s trade restrictions on Australia
• The impact of China’s trade restrictions on Australia
• Withdrawal of fiscal support won’t derail recovery
• Review probably won’t result in major policy changes
• Australia – Budget deficit may narrow faster than most anticipate
• Australia Labour Market (Nov.)
• Our key calls for 2021
• Flash PMIs (Dec.)
• Recovery slowing, but prospects brightening for 2021
• Bank to extend lending programmes
• Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.)
• Australia – QE may not be extended in April
• Bank of Japan acknowledges costs of negative rates
• Vaccine to reduce need for further monetary stimulus
• Vaccines will hasten return to pre-virus economic path
• RBA probably won’t extend QE any further next year
• Japan Flash PMIs (Nov.)
• Benefits from RCEP set to be modest
• Sluggish inflation may boost yen further
• Vaccine news boosts confidence in outlook
• Vaccine hopes brighten economic outlook
• Australia – Consumption to drive above-consensus recovery
• Australia Retail Sales (Sep./Q3)
• Australia – QE will probably be extended beyond April
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.)
• Activity rebounding, fiscal stimulus set to disappoint
• Inflation may not weaken all that much
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (Sep.)
• BoJ to stay the course
• RBA to cut rates to 0.10% and launch QE
• RBA QE to involve volume rather than yield target
• Flash PMIs (Oct.)
• How much QE will the RBA deliver?
• Bank to maintain expansionary status quo
• External Trade (Sep.)
• Fresh fiscal support likely as capital spending weakens
• Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery
• Overtaken on fiscal support
• Recovery could surprise to the upside
• Fiscal policy set to remain loose
• Australia – Bank to announce more easing in November
• Suga showing his true colours, recovery on track
• Tankan (Q3)
• Australia – RBA to cut rates and launch more QE
• Australia – Lessons from second virus waves
• Flash PMIs (Sep.)
• House prices may rise by 7% in 2021
• BoJ will keep policy unchanged
• Australia – Labour Market (Aug.)
• Australia – Lessons from Australia’s average inflation targeting
• Business investment plunging, money supply soaring
• Rate cuts still a remote scenario
• Australia – Stealth QE doesn’t let RBA off the hook
• Would Suganomics differ from Abenomics?
• Withdrawal of policy support a headwind to activity
• Australia – Retail Sales (Jul.)
• Australia – International Trade (Jul.)
• Australia – GDP (Q2)
• Australia – RBA may still attempt to lower long-term yields
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.)
• BoJ’s T-Bill purchases yet to boost the money supply
• Resilience in Australia’s corporate profits unlikely to last
• Deflation set to deepen further
• Australia – Private Capex Survey (Q2)
• Bank to resume bond purchases in earnest
• Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery
• Flash PMIs (Aug.)
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Would negative rates work in New Zealand?
• External Trade (Jul.) & Machinery Orders (Jun.)
• Will the surge in the money supply boost inflation?
• GDP (Q2 Preliminary)
• How far will Australian house prices fall?
• RBA will have to expand asset purchases in earnest
• Australia – State of disaster to slow recovery to a crawl
• Implications of another state of emergency
• Weak labour market to keep price pressures subdued
• Plunge in inflation to eventually trigger more easing
• Will the pandemic hurt Japan’s long-run prospects?
• Australia – Soaring public debt unlikely to hold back recovery
• Flash PMIs (Jul.)
• Australia – JobKeeper extension to keep lid on unemployment
• External Trade (Jun.)
• Australia – Labour Market (Jun.)
• More stimulus needed as recovery set to slow
• BoJ will keep policy unchanged
• Output set to remain below pre-virus level
• Victoria’s lockdown will slow recovery
• BoJ to stay the course
• Australia – RBA may yet have to expand bond purchases
• Renewed spike in virus cases to prevent full recovery
• Retail Sales (May)
• More stimulus needed before long
• Retail Sales (May)
• A look at Australia’s corporate balance sheets
• Why did huge monetary stimulus not boost inflation?
• Flash PMIs (Jun.)
• Australia – Sugar-high in consumption may not last
• Australia – Labour Market (May)
• External Trade (May)
• BoJ unlikely to expand lending facilities any further
• Machinery Orders (Apr.)
• Bank may expand lending programmes further
• Australia – Homebuyer grants won’t prevent falling house prices
• Australia – Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.)
• Employment income to rebound in H2
• Australia – RBA to expand quantitative easing soon
• Australia – How will policymakers rein in soaring public debt?
• April probably the nadir, but recovery slow going
• Budget deficit to surge despite smaller JobKeeper bill
• RBA to launch quantitative easing in earnest
• Massive support from BoJ should contain bankruptcies
• Flash PMIs (May)
• Rebound in activity to underwhelm
• Labour market damage & renewed trade tensions
• Australia – Labour Market (Apr.)
• Australia – Wage Price Index (Q1)
• Australia’s border closure will hit harder in Q2
• Easing of restrictions lays ground for rebound in H2
• New Zealand – Output won’t return to normal anytime soon
• Australia – Retail Sales (Mar./Q1)
• Australia – Interest rates to remain close to 0% for years
• Australia – What does lower net migration mean for Australia?
• Extension of state of emergency to weigh on spending
• Consumption to rebound as lockdown is ending
• Australia – Consumer Prices (Q1)
• RBA to stay the course
• Chances of rate cut dwindling
• Bankruptcies set to rise despite public loan provision
• Japan’s push to reshore production won’t succeed
• Flash PMIs (Apr.)
• Rate cut more likely than not
• Output to fall the most since Great Depression
• Government mulling additional support
• Australia – Labour Market (Mar.)
• Australia – Will Australia’s bank tighten lending standards?
• Lockdowns to result in double-digit fall in GDP in Q2
• Output to fall more than during global financial crisis
• Only modest fiscal support as lockdowns loom
• Australia – RBA may yet have to launch negative rates
• Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.)
• RBA may yet have to launch negative rates
• Australia: Wage subsidy won’t prevent surge in unemployment
• Is it time to launch the helicopter?
• Australia – Complete lockdown could lower GDP by 30% in Q2
• What would a lockdown mean for Japan’s economy?
• Australia – House prices should start to fall soon
• Flash PMIs (Mar.)
• Australia – Fiscal support ramped up as shutdown looms
• Australia – RBA may have to expand asset purchases further
• Australia – Slump in output to trigger large policy response
• External Trade (Feb.)
• Australia – Coronavirus to lift corporate defaults
• Bank of Japan still likely to cut interest rates
• Recession in Australia is now very likely
• Growing evidence that economic activity is collapsing
• Coronavirus outbreak will trigger BoJ policy rate cut
• Australian fiscal stimulus may avert a recession
• Intervention won’t prevent yen from strengthening
• Australia – Counting the cost of the coronavirus outbreak
• How vulnerable is Japan to supply chain disruptions?
• Australia – Will the RBA launch a yield curve target?
• Australia – Retail Sales (Jan.)
• Coronavirus will force Bank of Japan to cut rates
• Australia – RBA to cut rates to 0.25% in April
• How will the BoJ respond to the coronavirus?
• Australia – Coronavirus raises pressure on RBA to cut rates
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)
• Australia – Quantifying the impact of the coronavirus on exports
• RBA can’t ignore weak labour market much longer
• Olympic cancellation wouldn’t be an economic shock
• Bank of Japan to stick to its guns
• Flash PMIs (Feb.)
• Australia – Wage Price Index (Q4)
• Coronavirus to knock off 0.3% from GDP this year
• GDP (Q4 Preliminary)
• Debt sustainability, early evidence of coronavirus drag
• Australia – Consumption growth to remain muted this year
• Will the BoJ introduce a digital currency?
• Australia – RBA under less pressure to cut rates
• Australia – How overvalued is Australian housing?
• RBA not off the hook yet
• Wuhan virus threat, BoJ’s forward guidance
• Australia – Labour Market (Dec.)
• Australia – Mining’s dominance to end regardless of bushfires
• RBA’s work not done yet
• Australia – Mortgage defaults may keep rising
• Chances of policy easing diminishing
• Diminishing capacity shortages won’t prompt rate cuts
• Australia – Retail Sales (Nov.)
• Growth to fall short of expectations
• Consumer Confidence (Dec.)
• Australia – Bushfires may reduce Q1 GDP by 0.1%
• Soaring house prices won’t prevent further easing
• GDP still likely to shrink this year
• Australia – CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.)
• Diverging fortunes
• Bank of Japan on prolonged hold
• Australia – Labour Market (Nov.)
• Bank to remain on hold for foreseeable future
• Government remains reluctant to loosen fiscal policy
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.)
• Stimulus failing to boost confidence
• Bank of Japan on prolonged hold
• Tankan (Q4)
• Our key calls for 2020
• GDP (Q3 Revised)
• Australian economy is not ‘back on track’
• Falling profits, fiscal stimulus inflation
• Fiscal stimulus won’t boost growth much
• Australia – Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.)
• GDP (Q3)
• RBA will have to ease policy further
• Should the BoJ target shorter bond yields?
• Productivity growth should pick up again soon
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)
• Impact of Korean conflict set to remain limited
• GDP (Q3 Preliminary)
• Wage Price Index (Q3)
• Machinery Orders (Sep.)
• Government heeds Kuroda’s call for fiscal stimulus
• RBA indicates further easing may be needed
• Household Spending & Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.)
• International Trade (Sep.)
• RBA still has more work to do
• Retail Sales (Sep./Q3)
• Strong goods inflation probably won’t last
• Labour Market (Sep.)
• Bank of Japan to remain on hold next year
• Industrial Production (Sep.)
• Quantitative easing more likely than not
• Retail Sales (Sep.)
• Participation rate should continue to rise
• Bank of Japan to remain on hold next week
• Bank to keep policy rates unchanged
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)
• Fiscal stimulus urgently needed but unlikely
• RBA to launch QE as inflation weakens further
• External Trade (Sep.)
• RBA will eventually push the QE button
• JGB yields to rise next year despite lower BoJ buying
• Consumer Prices (Sep.)
• Labour Market (Sep.)
• Muted price effect understates impact of tax hike
• RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE
• Machinery Orders (Aug.)
• Headwinds strengthening
• Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.)
• Cheap long-term loans wouldn’t replace QE
• RBA has more work to do
• Natural unemployment rate probably still at 4%
• RBA to cut rates to 0.5% by year-end
• Tankan (Q3) & Labour Market (Aug.)
• Tankan (Q3)
• Labour Market (Aug.)
• How much damage will the tax hike do?
• Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.)
• What will guide the BoJ’s “re-examination” of policy?
• Rates will probably be cut to 0.75% in October
• Consumer Prices (Aug.)
• External Trade (Aug.)
• Stimulus still likely to boost spending
• Is it time to do the twist again?
• Bank to stick to its guns
• Machinery Orders (Jul.)
• Trade war still not a major threat to Australia
• What do rising house prices mean for the economy?
• Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.)
• GDP (Q2)
• Interest rates still likely to fall further
• Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jul.)
• Private Capex Survey (Q2)
• RBA not done yet
• Trade deal reduces the risk of US car tariffs
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• Should we be worried about rising loan losses?
• Current account won’t remain in surplus for long
• External Trade (Jul.)
• Outlook for labour market remains challenging
• Labour Market (Jul.)
• Wage Price Index (Q2)
• Machinery Orders (Jun.)
• GDP (Q2 Preliminary)
• Impending house supply shortages to support prices
• Stronger yen adds to speculation over policy easing
• Intervention wouldn’t prevent yen from strengthening
• RBA not done easing yet
• Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.)
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.)
• Retail Sales (Jun.)
• Profit slump driven by weak demand, not rising wages
• Benefits from lower company tax rate would be small
• Surge in participation rate nearing its end
• Surge in participation rate nearing its end
• State infrastructure spending won’t come to the rescue
• Shunto suggests wage growth is stagnating
• Consumer Prices (Jun.)
• External Trade (Jun.)
• What happens if JGB yields hit the floor?
• Will the RBA use unconventional tools?
• What do nuclear restarts mean for Japan?
• Regional bank tie-up a step in the right direction
• Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn
• Labour Cash Earnings (May)
• Will the conflict with Korea harm the economy?
• Shifting down a gear
• Machinery Orders (May)
• Japan’s tax structure still far from ideal
• RBA will probably cut rates to 0.5%
• Tankan (Q2)
• Upper House elections, higher Nikkei forecasts
• Labour Market & Industrial Production (May)
• RBA may eventually cut rates to 0.5%
• What does the Coalition victory mean for Australia?
• GDP (Q1 Preliminary)
• New Zealand – GDP (Q4 2018)
• New Zealand – Consumer Prices (Q4)
• New Zealand – GDP (Q3)
• New Zealand – RBNZ turns a little more hawkish
• RBA’s optimism unlikely to materialise
• Tokyo CPI (Oct.)
• New Zealand – Rates may not rise until late 2021
• Mounting risks suggest BoJ on hold for longer
• Consumer Prices (Jul.)
• What to expect from PM Abe’s third term?
• Philippines GDP (Q2)
• Machinery Orders (Jun.)
• Consumer Prices (May)
• External Trade (May)
• Is the Bank of Japan finally winning?
• Weaker Q1 sets the tone for 2018
• How well is Japan prepared for the digital revolution?
• Slowdown in bank lending no cause for concern
• Policy tightening still a distant prospect
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)
• Business investment will continue to impress
• Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Tokyo CPI (Mar.)
• Sluggish wage growth to prevent BoJ from tightening
• Expansion has become shakier
• New BoJ leadership will stay the course
• Yen strength another stumbling block for BoJ
• Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jan.)
• GDP (Q4 Revised)
• How will Japan react to the Trump tariffs?
• Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress
• New leadership will keep policy loose
• Is this it?
• Consumer Confidence (Feb.)
• Is the BoJ’s 2% inflation target achievable?
• Is Japan overheating?
• Growth still likely to slow this year
• Would Japan benefit from higher interest rates?
• Oil at $70 won’t result in policy tightening
• Bank of Japan to keep policy loose this year
• Price pressures strengthening again
• How much longer can the labour force grow?
• “Record” budget masks continued fiscal tightening
• External Trade (Nov.)
• How risky is overseas lending?
• Lower inflation forecasts underline case for loose policy
• Election unlikely to revive Abenomics
• Full-time staff shortages point to faster wage growth
• Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)
• Stronger growth, but inflation to rise only slowly
• Consumer Confidence (Aug. 17)
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)
• Capital Spending (Q2)
• Small Business Confidence (Aug)
• Is Japan still building bridges to nowhere?
• Inflation genie remains in its bottle
• Economy on track for prolonged expansion