South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April released this week added to the evidence that growth will pick up over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming too late to help the ANC’s election fight. Elsewhere, in Nigeria, soaring petrol prices may eventually recede, but the government’s de facto petrol subsidy will remain a large expense. Removing the subsidy (again) would help the fiscal position but add to inflation pressures. Finally, Kenya’s floods are wreaking havoc and past experience suggests GDP growth will slow. Inflation pressures may take longer to materialise but, on balance, the central bank’s hawkishness means that rate cuts could come later.
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