Chief Economist's Note China, inflation, trade wars – Your frequently asked questions Our meetings with clients in the Middle East and Asia last week took in discussion across a full range of macro and market issues, but the same three questions kept coming up: How should we read China... 4th March 2024
UK Housing Market Update The origin of the government’s 300,000 target We have traced the government’s target of building 300,000 new homes a year in England back to the 2004 Barker Review. Rerunning the calculations two decades on suggests 385,000 new homes a year would... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Stickiest part of services inflation may soon worry BoE less Our view that the Bank of England will become less concerned by the most persistent part of services CPI inflation suggests that it will cut interest rates in the summer, perhaps in June. But the risk... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Housing leading the economy out of recession The government’s desperation to close the gap on Labour in the opinion polls means surprisingly big tax cuts shouldn’t be ruled out from the Budget on Wednesday despite the fiscal constraints that... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Price Index (Feb. 2024) Another sizeable monthly increase in the Nationwide house price index in February confirmed that lower mortgage rates are feeding through to higher prices. But recent increases in interest rate... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Despite renewed inflation concerns pushing interest rate expectations and gilt yields higher, our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year makes us think that the markets are... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly Five highlights from February This Monthly looks at five highlights from the Climate Economics service in February, including the addition of Canada to our Regional Climate Databank, and the launch of our coverage of the EU carbon... 29th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jan. 24) 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jan. 2024) January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates is easing, which suggests an economic recovery, at least in some sectors, has... 29th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think European equities will keep playing catch-up We expect strong returns from European equities in the next couple of years, but we think they will continue to underperform those in the US. 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Green premium helps drive refurbishment boom The latest crane survey reported the highest volume of London office starts on record. In part that reflects a refurbishment boom as developers retrofit their buildings to meet MEES standards and... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024. 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Spring Budget 2024 Checklist This is an updated checklist which takes into account our latest expectations for the Spring Budget. The checklist helps clients keep track of the key policies and forecasts announced during the... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The implications of different combos of Prime Minister & President The outlook for the UK economy is unlikely to be very different depending on which of the possible combinations of UK Prime Ministers and US Presidents this year’s elections deliver. Even so, there... 26th February 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tax cuts now imply tax rises after the election Whatever the Chancellor gives away in tax cuts in the Budget, the next government will have to take away in the form of tax hikes after the election. This means any fiscal sugar rush for the economy... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook A recovery, but not much of one With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any... 23rd February 2024 · 23 mins read