UK Economics Weekly Global and domestic inflation risks mount We still think that the flatlining of the economy over the past two years will dampen price pressures by enough to result in CPI inflation falling below the 2% target in April and below 1.0% later... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2024) Although retail sales volumes remaining unchanged in March was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.5 % m/m), sales volumes still rose by 1.9% q/q in Q1 as a whole, bringing the... 19th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields may fall by more than Treasury yields Today’s UK CPI release has not made a sustained impact on investors’ expectations over the path of Bank Rate, and the market pricing implies that investors are still discounting fewer cuts from the... 17th April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March (BoE and consensus 3.1%, CE 3.0%) and drop in the core rate from 4.5% to 4.2% (consensus and CE 4.1%) raises the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in job vacancies a bigger worry than fall in employment As the plunge in employment in Q1 is probably a response to the recession last year, employment will probably soon rebound now that the economy is growing again. The real risk is a rebound in job... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2024) The sharp fall in employment and the jump in the unemployment rate in February suggest that wage growth will continue to slow even though the pace of decline appears to have eased. As long as that’s... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The risks to inflation posed by energy prices Our analysis shows that for CPI inflation to get stuck above 2.0% it would require oil prices and UK wholesale gas prices to rise to $110 per barrel and 150 pence per therm respectively. And for CPI... 15th April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Bernanke puts the boot in, but BoE won’t project interest rates Ben Bernanke didn’t pull any punches in his review of the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications and recommended a full revamp of the Bank’s main forecasting model, using alternative... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK heading for a US-style stalling in inflation? There are no obvious signs that the UK will follow in the US’s footsteps and that the downward trend in UK inflation will soon stall. But the risks are tilted towards inflation proving stickier and... 12th April 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Bernanke Review of BoE Forecasting (Apr. 2024) Our initial impression of the changes to the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications recommended by Ben Bernanke is that they would go a long way to helping the Bank generate more accurate... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read