Commodities Weekly Peak oil debate slightly misses the point The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Emissions in China are close to a turning point China’s rapid uptake of clean power means that it is on track to overachieve on its target of reaching peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. That said, the pace of decline will be slow at first... 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Commodity-exposed stock markets may disappoint Although we expect equities in general to fare well over the next year or so, we think that falls in most commodity prices will weigh on the energy and materials sectors. That would be bad news for... 10th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point? Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ temporarily sinks oil prices The decision by OPEC+ last Sunday to increase output from October caught investors by surprise and sent oil prices sinking to below $78 per barrel early in the week. Ahead of the meeting, investors... 7th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a... 6th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (June 2024) Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. OPEC+’s decision to roll over its production cuts into Q3 will keep supply... 6th June 2024 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Energy Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The agreement by OPEC+ to rollover voluntary production cuts into Q3 will keep global oil supply... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC+ to turn on the taps, oil prices to fall in 2025 At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed through and that output... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC+ decision to keep a lid on Gulf economies’ growth The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower over the rest of this year means that oil sectors in the Gulf will grow more slowly than we had previously anticipated and we have revised down our... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ set for crunch talks and Egypt’s fiscal reforms This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting could be a stick or twist moment with markets increasingly believing the group will roll over its quotas and voluntary cuts again. If quotas are extended, that risks... 30th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024) Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Labor isn’t wrecking the economy just yet Labor’s regulatory push can’t be blamed for the recent slump in labour productivity and we aren’t convinced that it will hold back future productivity growth much either. Indeed, we still think that a... 28th May 2024 · 17 mins read
Commodities Weekly EU gas and carbon price rallies are on borrowed time The 12% rise in European natural gas prices this week bucked the trend of sharp falls in oil and precious metal prices. Nonetheless, with European gas demand set to stay subdued, and copious supplies... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
