UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2023) December’s better-than-expected public finances figures brought some cheer for the Chancellor after the recent run of poor outturns and will give him a bit more wiggle room for a big pre-election... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of this year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting from March onwards, with rates eventually... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Still unbalanced, still unsustainable Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In... 22nd January 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rates, Kenya debt swap, Nigeria loans Remarks this week from SARB Governor Kganyago increase the chances of interest rates in South Africa staying high for longer, particularly if fiscal risks build ahead of the election. Kenya, meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Improved LatAm budget positions won’t stop debt rising Headline and primary budget balances across Latin America generally improved over the course of 2023 (Brazil was a key exception). But it seems unlikely that this will be sustained, and debt-to-GDP... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya better placed to avoid default, for now One of the big questions in Kenya in 2024 is whether the government can meet a $2bn Eurobond repayment due in the middle of the year. An improving balance of payments position, alongside an enhanced... 16th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa IRP, Transnet cash, World Bank optimism South Africa presented its draft energy plan, which brought bad news to those concerned about loadshedding and the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the country’s finance... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s IMF deal, Saudi’s fiscal position and bond issuance An expansion of Egypt’s IMF deal appears to be edging closer following meetings between its government and the Fund and US Treasury this week. A shift back towards economic orthodoxy, including the... 11th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s economy stuck in malaise Economic growth in Jordan has been sluggish for the best part of a decade and the outlook doesn't look much brighter. While the renewed IMF programme will help to contain external strains, the Israel... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update State & local government spending boom set to end The surge in spending by state & local governments has boosted economic growth over the past year but, with tax revenues falling back in recent quarters, that boom is now set to fade. 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Long-term debt sustainability still under threat The recent sharp fall in Japan’s ratio of public debt to GDP reflects one-off factors that won’t be sustained. While the influence of rising bond yields on the trajectory of the public finances will... 8th January 2024 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria deficit, Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Kenya GDP Nigeria’s 2024 budget, signed into law this week, included encouraging signs that the government will cease deficit monetisation, providing hope that the Tinubu administration’s reform momentum hasn’t... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read