China Economics Update China trip notes – sentiment still depressed A week spent visiting clients, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China. 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Modest fiscal stimulus unlikely to prevent June rate cut Budget 2024 made a bit of a splash thanks to the unexpected changes to capital gains taxes, but we do not think the new net spending measures were large enough to change the outlook for GDP growth or... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran-Israel tensions, Gulf floods, Egypt’s preliminary budget The ratcheting up of tensions between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, it seems unlikely that the Gulf states will get drawn in unless there is a serious... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s foreign investment struggles persist Saudi Arabia has yet to be able to raise foreign direct investment towards its Vision 2030 goals, prompting a turn to the Public Investment Fund (PIF) to prop up investment spending. Unless the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium’s public debt a cause for concern? We think it is most likely that future governments bring down Belgium’s budget deficit sufficiently to put its debt on a sustainable trajectory. However, the risks are that the deficit is higher than... 17th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Freeland spends what she can in Budget 2024 Although Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland stuck to her previous pledge to keep the budget deficit below $40bn in the new fiscal year, she nonetheless spent the small windfall afforded to the... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget unlikely to move the needle for interest rates Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s pledge to create the conditions needed for lower interest rates means the government is unlikely to announce much new near-term spending in Budget 2024 next week... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Higher oil prices bolster Russia’s war economy The latest rise in oil prices presents challenges to the near-term outlook for most countries in Emerging Europe by weakening their terms of trade and pushing up inflation – which already looked set... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro weakness won’t stop the ECB, Italy fiscal worries The ECB gave a strong signal this week that it will cut rates in June. A later start to the Fed’s easing cycle or further weakness in the euro are unlikely to deter it. Meanwhile, Italy’s latest... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria stops ways and means use, but FX debt to rise Nigeria’s authorities have ceased central bank deficit monetisation via the ways and means facility. But the government will struggle to finance its ambitious spending plans – particularly given the... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s policy shift, Saudi gigaprojects, Morocco GDP Just over a month ago Egypt’s authorities underwent their dramatic shift to economic orthodoxy and the signs so far are more positive than in previous instances. The pound is more flexible, inflation... 11th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s public finances still a cause for concern After a period of relative calm, Italy’s fragile public finances are likely to come under the spotlight again before long. Budget deficits will be much higher than the latest government projections... 10th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain needs to follow Oman’s path to reduce debt fears Oman and Bahrain both recorded sharp increases in their government debt-to-GDP ratios in the second half of the last decade, but while Oman’s public finances have improved dramatically since then... 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA weak demand, Nigeria electricity, Kenya rates South Africa’s disappointing PMI for March supports our view that the economic recovery this year will be subdued. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s reduction in household electricity subsidies will help its... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read