Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia can stick with its loose fiscal stance (for now) Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened further at the start of this year and, for now at least, the government seems comfortable with maintaining the loose fiscal stance and issuing more debt. If oil... 7th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA growth, Nigeria petrol subsidy, Kenya floods South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April released this week added to the evidence that growth will pick up over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming too late to help the ANC’s election... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 24) China’s economy grew at a healthy pace in the first quarter of 2024. Our China Activity Proxy suggests this was on the back of strong external demand. While fiscal support should continue to keep the... 30th April 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: risk of fiscal complacency creeping in The Polish government’s white paper on Monday set out a scathing review of the previous government’s fiscal record and highlighted the challenges facing the public finances, but if we’ve learned... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 24) China’s senior leadership has today signalled further fiscal and monetary support for the economy and renewed efforts to stabilise the housing market. That should help prolong the recent economic... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly No SARB rate cuts in 2024, SSA subsidy removal The SARB’s biannual Monetary Policy Review published this week, which showed less confidence in South Africa’s disinflation trend and reiterated the desire to move to a lower inflation target... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC bond trading, LGFV pullback The PBOC has clarified that its plans to start trading government bonds are aimed at managing interest rate risk, not conducting QE. This reinforces our sense that large-scale monetary easing remains... 26th April 2024 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal Headroom Monitor: Limited scope for tax cuts If sustained, the recent rises in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields may mean that the Chancellor has only around £5bn of fiscal headroom, down from £8.9bn in the March Budget, with... 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: initial fiscal successes but more work to do The better-than-expected budget figures out of Argentina at the start of the year are undoubtedly good news and show that the fiscal adjustment is happening more quickly than we’d expected. That said... 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2024) March’s public finances figures show that public borrowing in 2023/24 came in £6.6bn higher than the OBR predicted only a month ago, casting further doubt on the ability of the government to unveil... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read