Japan Economics Update Case for FX intervention less compelling than in 2022 The Ministry of Finance may have intervened earlier today by selling FX reserves to halt the sharp fall of the yen. However, the economic case for foreign exchange intervention is much weaker now than... 29th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly No SARB rate cuts in 2024, SSA subsidy removal The SARB’s biannual Monetary Policy Review published this week, which showed less confidence in South Africa’s disinflation trend and reiterated the desire to move to a lower inflation target... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Data favour the doves The latest Summary of Deliberations showed division among the Governing Council about when it will be appropriate to cut interest rates. The data released since the April meeting favour the doves... 26th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery in activity won’t stop ECB rate cuts Survey data released this week suggest that the euro-zone is coming out of recession. But with activity still very weak and wage growth appearing to have eased so far this year, we remain comfortable... 26th April 2024 · 11 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (April 2024) The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for the first half of this month, of 3.8% y/y, and signs of softening underlying core price pressures might just be enough to give Copom... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The hawkish communications accompanying the decision by the Russian central bank (CBR) to leave its key policy rate on hold today suggests that monetary easing will probably arrive later than we... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC bond trading, LGFV pullback The PBOC has clarified that its plans to start trading government bonds are aimed at managing interest rate risk, not conducting QE. This reinforces our sense that large-scale monetary easing remains... 26th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank rate cuts inching closer The continued decline in core inflation will make it difficult for Norges Bank to stick to its current guidance that it will leave interest rates unchanged until Q4. We suspect that the Bank will... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates once more in July The Bank of Japan is getting more confident in meeting its inflation target on a sustained basis and signalled that inflation wouldn’t have to overshoot for policy to be tightened further. Nonetheless... 26th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ’s confidence in sustained 2% inflation growing With pay hikes becoming increasingly widespread, the Bank of Japan is becoming more confident that it can meet its inflation target on a sustained basis. But with underlying inflation now clearly... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Plunge in Tokyo inflation won’t prevent BoJ tightening The plunge in inflation in Tokyo in April was mostly due to a sharp fall in high school tuition fees and the provision of free school meals. The impact of those policy changes on nationwide inflation... 26th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more likely to hike than not The case for the RBA to tighten policy is growing increasingly compelling. Underlying inflation is all but certain to overshoot its current forecast. Services inflation, which has long been a concern... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are Fed hikes coming? Hikes are back on the agenda at some central banks and core PCE data for Q1 added to the hawkish mood in US markets. But we don’t think the Fed will feel the need to start hiking again. Indeed, given... 25th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Regional growth appears to have picked up in Q1 and we think that will continue, helped by an improved external environment. But inflation is set to fall back more slowly than previously expected... 25th April 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 50.00% at today’s meeting, but the statement continued to strike a hawkish tone amid persistent inflation risks in the economy. While we think the... 25th April 2024 · 2 mins read