BoE Watch Could the BoE tee up a June rate cut? The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday 9th May and we suspect it will imply it’s still not quite ready to cut rates. That said, there’s a chance it instead... 2nd May 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (April) The jump in Switzerland’s inflation rate in April was largely due to increases in the volatile food and fuel components. While the data increase our confidence that the SNB will not cut interest rates... 2nd May 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still “unlikely”. Moreover, while he... 1st May 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Weakness in the Mexican peso may have further to go We think that the recent weakness in the Mexican peso was partly a symptom of stretched positioning. Given that risk premia still appear unusually low and the outlook for the “carry trade” is... 30th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Inflation Watch – Bumpy ride back to target 1715176800 Is progress stalling on efforts to get inflation under control? Why are price pressures proving more stubborn than expected?
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 24) China’s economy grew at a healthy pace in the first quarter of 2024. Our China Activity Proxy suggests this was on the back of strong external demand. While fiscal support should continue to keep the... 30th April 2024 · 0 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Provisional) The slightly faster-than-expected 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q1, alongside strong underlying price pressures and the delay to rate cuts in the US, mean that Banxico is all but certain... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus Overcapacity will keep inflation near zero Most analysts expect China’s inflation rate to rebound to around 2% by 2026. In contrast, we think that persistent imbalances between supply and demand will keep it close to zero for the foreseeable... 30th April 2024 · 14 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Key highlights from April This Monthly looks at some of the key highlights from the Climate Economics service in April, including our coverage of Chinese exports of the "New Three" and green central bank policy. 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 24) China’s senior leadership has today signalled further fiscal and monetary support for the economy and renewed efforts to stabilise the housing market. That should help prolong the recent economic... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike in May, no rate cuts until 2025 We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, in contrast to the consensus view that the Bank will remain on hold. Given the RBA’s ostensible resolve to... 30th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How the Bank of England will respond to UK inflation’s rapid retreat 1715263200 Despite global panic about the DM inflation outlook, we still think that price pressures in the UK are set to fade faster than most assume, opening the way for the Bank of Eng
US Economics Update Trump, the Fed, and the dollar Most of the major policy initiatives being suggested by Donald Trump’s campaign would be inflationary; whether it’s narrowing the trade deficit via tariffs or a dollar devaluation, curbing immigration... 29th April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets overdo higher for longer narrative While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK... 29th April 2024 · 10 mins read