Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may keep hiking even if inflation target isn’t met Even though the economic case for preventing the yen from sliding is much weaker, the Ministry of Finance seems to have responded with an even more forceful round of foreign exchange interventions... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Will China devalue the renminbi? Chinese policymakers won’t risk reliving the turmoil of 2015 by engineering a sudden devaluation of the renminbi. They may allow the currency to weaken gradually over the coming years to help industry... 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The US dollar has made further gains against most major currencies over the past month or so. Interest rate expectations have continued to pick up in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing... 30th April 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Weakness in the Mexican peso may have further to go We think that the recent weakness in the Mexican peso was partly a symptom of stretched positioning. Given that risk premia still appear unusually low and the outlook for the “carry trade” is... 30th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What’s next for Chinese financial markets? While we expect Chinese bonds and equities to make more gains in the near term, we think the outlook further ahead is not as bright for the latter. 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest swings in the yen Japan’s apparent intervention in support of the beleaguered yen may buy some time for the currency to stabilise, but is unlikely to lead to sustained turnaround until US interest rate expectations... 29th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets overdo higher for longer narrative While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK... 29th April 2024 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update Case for FX intervention less compelling than in 2022 The Ministry of Finance may have intervened earlier today by selling FX reserves to halt the sharp fall of the yen. However, the economic case for foreign exchange intervention is much weaker now than... 29th April 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update It would take a lot more dollar strength to “break the economy” The US dollar would have to appreciate a lot further before having significant effects on the global economy and financial system. A key risk to watch for is the widening policy divergence between the... 25th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Regional growth appears to have picked up in Q1 and we think that will continue, helped by an improved external environment. But inflation is set to fall back more slowly than previously expected... 25th April 2024 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily USD strength may delay, not derail, EM easing cycles Even if the US dollar stays strong against most currencies this year, we think that much of the broad-based weakness in EM (emerging market) FX has run its course. While some EM central banks may now... 24th April 2024 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar in consolidation mode, despite Middle East escalation Financial markets have largely taken the latest escalation in the Middle East over the past week in stride. Having spiked from $87pb to $90pb on the news of today’s attack, Brent crude oil has now... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria naira rebound, SA election and late rate cuts The naira’s surprising recent recovery appears to have been driven by FX reserve sales and the currency risks becoming overvalued again. We think renewed naira weakness is on the cards over the rest... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read