Capital Daily Taking stock of the recent surge in Treasury yields We doubt the recent rise in US bond yields will continue much further, or significantly undermine the prospects of US equities. 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Most assets struggled this month amid concerns that resilient core inflation, particularly in the US, may delay central bank easing cycles. But we continue to think that central banks will cut... 30th April 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What’s next for Chinese financial markets? While we expect Chinese bonds and equities to make more gains in the near term, we think the outlook further ahead is not as bright for the latter. 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other developed markets (DM) central banks will be able to ease... 29th April 2024 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets overdo higher for longer narrative While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK... 29th April 2024 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stock market rally only a small support for consumers Our equity and house price forecasts imply household net wealth will rise significantly over the next three years. Even so, we estimate that household net wealth as a share of disposable incomes will... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook Life after the bubble The latest edition of our Long-Run Asset Allocation Outlook sets out what we think lies in store for equities, bonds, REITs, and commodities over the next 10 years and beyond. This includes relatively... 24th April 2024 · 21 mins read
Capital Daily Stock markets fall back: consolidation or worse? Stock markets are having a tough start to the quarter, but we think that they will rebound, notably in the US, thanks to renewed enthusiasm about artificial intelligence. 22nd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Geopolitics might not thwart a recovery in bank shares All nine constituents of the S&P 500 diversified banks index have now released their earnings reports for Q1. While the performance of their shares has typically been underwhelming of late, in some... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is the future brighter for US banks? Higher Treasury yields, a resilient US economy, and relatively low valuations are three reasons why we now think that the future for US banks in general is a bit brighter. 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk premia on Turkish assets may stay low The risk premia on Turkish assets are now low relative to the past decade or so. We think that will remain the case over the coming quarters, given the positive global risk-on attitude and the ongoing... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The correlation between bond yields and equites The correlation between changes in bond yields and in equities has rarely been so negative, and we suspect this will continue as yields fall back and equities rebound. 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil prices and the stock market Many of the usual relationships between oil prices and equities haven’t held over recent months. This Update explores the reason for that, and what may lie in store for energy equities and the broader... 16th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Fed – not the Middle East – still the bigger worry for markets Financial markets have, so far, taken the latest escalation in the Middle East over the weekend largely in stride. Our sense remains that, absent an even larger conflagration that disrupts energy... 15th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Higher yields might not stop value underperforming growth We think ‘value’ stocks will generally underperform their ‘growth’ counterparts while a bubble in the US stock market continues to inflate, even if Treasury yields don’t drop back in the way that we... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read