Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Commercial activity rebounds, but housing still subdued The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the fifth consecutive month to 53.0 in April, a 14-month high. The rise was driven by improvements to the commercial and civil engineering components, …
7th May 2024
Higher mortgage rates continue to hit prices The second consecutive decline in the Nationwide house price index in April confirms that the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year will prevent further near-term price gains. But as we think Bank …
1st May 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further evidence the drag on activity from high interest rates is fading March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is …
30th April 2024
Construction PMIs edge closer to expansionary territory The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to 50.2 in February, the first time it has risen above the no change level since August last year. The rise was driven by small improvements across the …
5th April 2024
Rebound in mortgage rates causes prices to stall The first decline in the Halifax House price Index in six months confirmed that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall. The 1.0% m/m fall in the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Drag on activity from high interest rates continues to fade February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals …
2nd April 2024
Rising mortgage rates cause house prices to stall The 0.2% m/m fall in the Nationwide house price index in March (consensus: +0.3%, CE: +0.2%) suggested that the rise in mortgage rates since the turn of the year has caused house prices to stall. That …
End of mortgage rate fall slows prices The smallest month-on-month increase in house prices since September suggested that the boost to house prices from the decline in mortgage rates since last summer is over. With mortgage rates now edging up, house …
7th March 2024
Construction PMIs edge closer to expansionary territory The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to 49.7 in February, just under the no change level. The rise was driven by the housing component, with commercial activity edging back a touch. As interest …
6th March 2024
Further substantial rise puts doubt on downbeat consensus forecasts Another sizeable monthly increase in the Nationwide house price index in February confirmed that lower mortgage rates are feeding through to higher prices. (See Chart 1.) But recent …
1st March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Drag on consumption from higher interest rates fading January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates …
29th February 2024
Large monthly increase confirms bumper start to 2024 The large 1.3% m/m gain in Halifax’s measure of house prices in January was the largest since June 2022, and suggests we are already almost halfway towards our forecast that house prices will rise by 3% …
7th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMIs start 2024 in contractionary territory The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 46.8 in December to 48.8 in January was driven by improvements in …
6th February 2024
Larger-than-expected increase supports our above-consensus forecast The larger than expected +0.7% m/m gain in house prices in January (consensus: +0.1%, Capital Economics: +0.4%) reflected improving public sentiment about the economy and the housing …
31st January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. A turning point in credit December’s money and credit figures suggest the transition from interest rates being a drag on activity to being a boost is beginning. This lends some …
30th January 2024
Market was picking up even before latest slide in mortgage rates The December RICS Housing Market survey showed sales volumes rising and buyer demand recovering even before the further sizeable drop in mortgage rates in January. That’s encouraging for our …
17th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMIs still subdued in December The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.5 in November to 46.8 in December was driven by the increase in the housing …
5th January 2024
Lower mortgage rates see house prices jump in December The big 1.1% m/m increase in the Halifax house price index confirms that falls in mortgage rates are translating into renewed increases in house prices. Given further recent falls in mortgage rates, …
Rise in mortgage approvals set to continue The rise in mortgage approvals in November was little surprise given the sharp drop back in mortgage rates since July. Given recent further falls in swap rates, mortgage rates are likely to continue to fall from …
4th January 2024
Flat prices in December confirm 2023 resilience Unchanged house prices in December ensured that over the course of 2023 they fell by much less than forecasters had expected. With mortgage rates falling, it is increasingly likely that house prices avoid …
29th December 2023
Halifax confirms that prices are on the rise again The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in November mirrored the increase in the Nationwide index, confirming that house prices have not only stabilised, but are rising. …
7th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMIs once again below 50 in November The headline CIPS construction PMI barely changed in November, settling at 45.5 from 45.6 in October, and was still below the 50 …
6th December 2023
Rising prices continue to confound forecasters The further small increase in the Nationwide house price index in November was unexpected and came on the heels of an even larger rise in October. It means house prices are on track to fall by just 2% y/y in …
1st December 2023
Trough in mortgage approvals behind us With mortgage rates easing, the rise in mortgage approvals in October confirms that the trough in mortgage approvals is behind us. But with mortgage rates unlikely to fall much below 5% until the second half of 2024, …
29th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Confirmation house prices have stopped falling The increase in the Halifax house price index in October confirmed that house prices are rising, suggesting that the high cost of …
7th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Housing suffers but commercial surprisingly resilient The uptick in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.0 in September to 45.6 in October still left it below the 50 …
6th November 2023
House prices confound expectations The large increase in house prices in October was a massive surprise given higher mortgage rates should be severely restricting the number of people able to buy and the amount they can spend. But at present, stretched …
1st November 2023
Approvals bottom out, but will remain low The drop in mortgage approvals in September left them a third below their usual level in the years leading up to the pandemic as high mortgage rates put homeowners off moving and priced many first-time buyers out …
30th October 2023
Near-term momentum in house prices is downwards The sixth consecutive monthly decline in the Halifax House Price Index in September leaves it significantly more downbeat than the Nationwide figures about near-term momentum in house prices. Given the …
6th October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMI falls below 50 as commercial balance plunges The decline in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 50.8 in August to 45.0 in September took it below the 50 …
5th October 2023
Pause in price falls unlikely to mark the trough The stabilisation of house prices in September was a surprise given mortgage rates are still well above the level which allowed the first leg down in house prices to bottom out. But leading indicators of …
2nd October 2023
Approvals to remain weak for the next six months The further decline in mortgage approvals in August to their lowest level since the aftermath of last autumn's “mini” budget showed that high mortgage rates are keeping home purchase demand very weak. Our …
29th September 2023
Largest annual fall since 2009 The steep fall in the Halifax House Price Index in August confirmed that the further leg down in house prices we have been forecasting has materialised. If we are right to think that mortgage rates will remain around current …
7th September 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMIs weaken as new orders fall back The fall in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 51.7 in July to 50.8 in August left it just above the 50 “no-change” mark. …
6th September 2023
The start of a new leg down in prices The large monthly fall in house prices in August confirmed that the further leg down in house prices that we have been forecasting has begun to materialise. With mortgage rates likely to remain around current levels …
1st September 2023
Renewed surge in mortgage rates begins to take its toll The decline in mortgage approvals to a five-month low in July showed the renewed surge in mortgage rates since April has begun to take its toll. But given the lag between quoted mortgage rates and …
30th August 2023
Halifax prices edged lower in July With mortgage rates rising to around 6% in July, it was no surprise that the slide in the Halifax house price index continued. Although there might be a modest fall in mortgage rates in the near term, we think they will …
7th August 2023
The headline CIPS construction PMI resumed its upward trend in July, with the rise to 51.7 more than reversing the drop into contractionary territory in June. All sectors saw an increase in their respective balances, with commercial rising to 54.4, its …
4th August 2023
Mortgage rate surge starts to take its toll The slight fall in house prices in July is the first sign of the surge in mortgage rates since mid-May taking its toll. As we expect mortgage rates to remain around their current level for the next 12 months, we …
1st August 2023
Surge in mortgage rates yet to take its toll Given the recent surge in mortgage rates, the increase in mortgage approvals to their highest level since October 2022 in June was a little bit of a surprise. But that reflects the lag between quoted mortgage …
31st July 2023
A fragile plateau The decline in the Halifax house price index in June was surprisingly modest given the scale of the increase in mortgage rates in the same month. But the current level of house prices looks unsustainably high given where mortgage rates …
7th July 2023
Construction slows as interest rates stay higher for longer and recession looms After two months of gains the headline CIPS construction PMI reversed course in May, dropping to a five-month low of 48.9, which indicated a contraction in activity. All …
6th July 2023
National index resilient, but regional data confirm affordability matters The pause in the fall in house prices extended into June according to Nationwide, but we think it is just a matter of time before the spike in mortgage rates in recent weeks causes …
30th June 2023
The Calm Before the Storm The tick up in mortgage approvals in May sustained the partial recovery from the slump at the beginning of the year. (See Chart 1.) But the increase reflects earlier declines in mortgage rates and will be cut short by their more …
29th June 2023
Pause in May will give way to renewed falls ahead House prices were unchanged in May according to Halifax. Given that lack of momentum, the increase in mortgage rates following the bad inflation data published on the 24th of the month is set to tip house …
7th June 2023
The headline CIPS construction PMI increased for a second month in a row in May to 51.6, indicating a small rise in activity. But in line with last month there was a marked difference between the commercial and housing sectors, with the former rising to …
6th June 2023
The renewed decline in mortgage approvals in April will have dashed hopes that the jump in March marked the start of a recovery. Moreover, with mortgage rates now on their way back up, lending is likely to remain weak throughout the second half of the …
1st June 2023
House prices flattened off in May after a rise in April. But with mortgage rates now on their way back up we suspect that the stabilisation in prices over the last couple of months will soon give way to renewed falls. The -0.1% m/m fall in house prices in …
