Filtered by Subscriptions: Energy Use setting Energy
The US and China once again backed the G20 goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity this week (from 2020), a goal which would help to keep the path to net zero emissions by 2050 on track. However, the speed of the energy transition is uncertain, …
17th November 2023
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
16th November 2023
The Vaca Muerta shale formation will alleviate some of the pressure on Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position by substantially reducing the country’s gas import bill and raising oil export revenues. While this is good news for the crisis-ridden …
8th November 2023
Energy prices will remain historically high over the remainder of this year. The Israel-Hamas conflict has increased volatility in energy markets, but supply has not been disrupted. Oil prices will remain high as OPEC+ output cuts keep supply constrained. …
3rd November 2023
The underperformance of wind and solar equities since early 2021 has largely been driven by higher interest rates, which disproportionately affect the cost of renewables projects. But while the days of ultra-low financing costs are behind us, our …
2nd November 2023
We think the cautious oil market reaction to the outbreak of conflict in Israel probably reflects the huge uncertainty about the eventual outcome, but also a somewhat lower “Middle East” risk premium. For context, the Brent crude oil price has risen by …
26th October 2023
The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios is unlikely to generate a sustained hit to major asset markets. …
EU natural gas prices have risen in recent weeks highlighting that a reliance on LNG imports is not without risk. That said, prices should fall back next year as a significant amount of LNG export capacity comes online, first in the US and then in Qatar. …
25th October 2023
Argentina’s oil and gas production growth has slowed sharply recently due to pipeline capacity constraints. New projects should ease these bottlenecks, and production should rise from 2024. Admittedly, the expected increases in output are not large enough …
It was generally a strong week for commodity prices as mounting geopolitical tensions boosted the oil price. In turn, higher oil prices put upward pressure on most agricultural prices. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Price Changes (%, w/w) Source: Refinitiv …
20th October 2023
2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record, but somewhat ominously the headwinds to the green transition have strengthened this year. Some of these will prove temporary, particularly as short-term policy interest rates start to come down. That …
19th October 2023
After several years in a post-Fukushima wilderness, nuclear power’s ability to provide low-emission and reliable electricity generation has slowly brought it back into favour around the world. Several countries, particularly in Asia, are likely to bring …
The reported deal that is close to being reached to lift US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in return for competitive elections would help to raise the country’s oil output from very depressed levels. But the sector requires enormous investment to …
16th October 2023
The conflict between Hamas and Israel will negatively affect Israel’s natural gas exports. However, the bigger concern for global natural gas prices is the risk of the conflict spreading. The European natural gas price has risen by about 30% w/w to €48 …
12th October 2023
Note: We discussed the outlook for oil prices and the geo-economics around the conflict between Israel and Hamas in a Drop-In on 9th October. Click here to watch the recording. First and foremost, the renewed fighting between Hamas and Israel since the …
9th October 2023
The attack by Hamas on Israel on Saturday has led to widespread casualties and deaths, and the declaration of war by Israel’s prime minister. From an economic perspective, the experience from the 2014 Gaza war suggests that the effects on Israel’s economy …
The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous financial crises that have been caused by sharp moves in …
4th October 2023
Strong production growth has helped to pull US natural gas prices below 2019 levels for most of this year. But prices should rise by the end of 2024 as production growth is set to ease and exports will surge when LNG export capacity rises by nearly a …
2nd October 2023
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to struggle over the rest of this year as developed economies flirt with recession, the US dollar remains strong and investor risk appetite moderates. That said, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Brent oil price …
26th September 2023
Investment in the green transition is unlikely to rise quickly enough this decade to help achieve net zero by 2050. But a greater focus on areas including renewables and electric vehicles will still probably push up investment’s share of global GDP by …
25th September 2023
Note: Join our online briefing on Tuesday, 19 th September about oil prices and the risks to the global inflation outlook. Register here . While we think Saudi Arabia and Russia’s supply cuts, which have sent oil prices surging in recent weeks, will be …
14th September 2023
Energy prices will remain historically high over the remainder of this year. OPEC+ output cuts, which have kept the oil market constrained, will continue until the end of the year, while demand in the US and China has held up. The natural gas market …
6th September 2023
China’s energy demand has been a bright spot in the gloom of an ailing property sector and disappointing economic growth. We think China’s crude oil and natural gas demand will rise further next year, however, coal consumption should fall as hydropower …
30th August 2023
The government’s ambition of developing a globally-competitive manufacturing sector, combined with relatively slow progress on shifting away from using coal for electricity production, means India will become the world’s biggest polluter in the …
23rd August 2023
Price volatility in the wake of news of possible strike action at Australian LNG export terminals serves as a reminder that natural gas markets are still carrying the scars of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. High volatility is likely to remain until …
21st August 2023
Energy prices will remain historically high over the remainder of this year, albeit significantly lower than their peak in 2022. Supply in the oil market is constrained and demand appears to be holding up well. The natural gas market appears comfortably …
9th August 2023
Saudi Arabia’s announcement yesterday that it would extend its unilateral oil production cut of 1m bpd into September sent the Brent crude oil price climbing to $85 per barrel, where it remains today. We think the price will remain at around this level …
4th August 2023
The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV adoption than other forecasters and suspect the drag on …
31st July 2023
China’s recent announcement of export restrictions on two metals used to make semiconductors serves as a reminder that China dominates production of metals needed for the green transition. We have warned in the past that the green transition is unlikely …
20th July 2023
While the wholesale European natural gas price is now close to pre-energy crisis levels again, we don’t expect EU gas consumption to rise in response. Rather, we think that EU gas consumption has structurally fallen. This is the main reason why we think …
The spot price of Asia LNG should trade at a premium to Europe’s TTF gas at end-2023 given stronger demand growth in Asia and the fact that LNG is more costly to produce. The spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia has periodically moved …
12th July 2023
How will the combination of El Niño and human-driven global warming affect commodities and economic performance over the short and long term? … El Niño – Macro, policy and market …
7th July 2023
We recently held a Drop-in titled “Industry’s decarbonisation challenge – From aviation to property”, which you can view on-demand here . This Update addresses some of the questions we received during the event, including those that we did not have time …
3rd July 2023
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to struggle this year against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and deteriorating investor risk appetite. Energy-related commodities will be the exception. We expect prices to tick up later in the year owing to …
29th June 2023
Note: We’re holding a 20-minute briefing on the challenges that aviation and other key industries face in decarbonising at 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST on Thursday, 29th June. Register now . Despite jet fuel being a fairly small share of total oil consumption, …
21st June 2023
The latest OPEC oil market report confirms that OPEC countries implemented a fresh round of voluntary production cuts in May, slashing the group’s crude output by 0.4m bpd. Similar to OPEC’s own view on the oil market, we think that it will tighten …
13th June 2023
The latest OPEC oil market report confirms that OPEC countries implemented a fresh round of voluntary production cuts in May, slashing the group’s crude output by 0.4m bpd. Similar to OPEC’s own view on the oil market, we think that it will tighten later …
Having fallen steadily for much of the last year, European natural gas prices surged last week. The catalyst was constrained supply. Given seasonally high stocks and subdued demand, we are not worried yet about another price spike. But Europe has to avoid …
12th June 2023
Preventing large-scale leaks of methane from Turkmenistan’s creaking infrastructure would be a welcome sign of emissions-cutting efforts broadening out from carbon dioxide to include other harmful greenhouse gases too. But while Turkmenistan has become …
8th June 2023
Overview – Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand loomed large and the US dollar strengthened. We think that prices will continue to struggle over the next few months, but energy and metals prices should rise …
7th June 2023
Oil output will be more constrained in the second half of this year if the OPEC+ members stick to their recently-announced production quotas. However, we have also raised our forecast of Russian production given the persistent strength in its exports. As …
5th June 2023
US product demand remains resilient Oil prices surged on the back of this week’s report, which managed to successfully tear investors’ attention away from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend. In isolation, there was little to suggest this was a …
1st June 2023
OPEC+ is unlikely to change its output target at the meeting this Sunday. After all, crude supply is already constrained, but prices have fallen on demand concerns. Accordingly, it is unlikely that further cuts would prompt a large rebound in prices. …
The aviation sector is pinning its hopes on sustainable aviation fuel to help cut its carbon footprint over the coming decades. But any ramp-up in biofuel usage would pit aviation against the needs of other sectors and industry officials are becoming more …
25th May 2023
China’s refineries pumped out more oil products than at any point in their history in the first four months of this year. This is perhaps not too surprising given that the removal of COVID-19 restrictions was always going to give a boost in demand. But a …
The long-awaited inclusion of WTI Midland into Dated Brent is now taking place in a gradual month-long process that started on 2 nd May. The inclusion of Midland could be a factor weighing on the Brent-WTI price spread in the coming months, but we …
24th May 2023
The strength in US product demand is unlikely to be sustained Commercial stocks slumped as imports fell sharply. Meanwhile, implied product demand rose, but we think the usual summer boost to demand may be more subdued this year as economic growth slows. …
Commercial stocks build, prices likely to remain subdued Commercial stocks rose for a second consecutive week even as production fell and refinery utilisation picked up. Releases from strategic reserves supported stocks and are likely to continue to do so …
17th May 2023
Overview – Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand have intensified and risk appetite has soured. We think prices will continue to struggle over the next few months as tight monetary policy feeds into slowdowns …
16th May 2023
OPEC crude oil production declined in April due to export disruptions in Iraq. Production should fall even further in May when OPEC+ output cuts come into effect. Elsewhere, the easing of some US sanctions on Venezuela should mean production there rises …
11th May 2023