Filtered by Subscriptions: Energy Use setting Energy
The fall in oil prices since Iran and Israel’s back-and-forth attacks suggests that some of the risk premium in prices has now unwound. Prices continue to be supported by OPEC+ production cuts but we suspect that members will gradually unwind these cuts …
7th May 2024
Recent increases in natural gas prices in Europe have predictably been mirrored in the EU carbon price, which has risen from a 31-month low of €52 per tonne in February to €71 at the time of writing. The rise in European natural gas prices has been driven …
18th April 2024
Oil prices have so far shrugged off disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. Prices were supported by the OPEC+ decision to roll over production cuts until Q3. We expect that the group will gradually unwind …
11th March 2024
Energy prices have so far shrugged off disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. If energy production continues to be largely unaffected, we expect most prices to fall further by the end of the year. Greater …
5th February 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
Following a period of upward pressure on renewable and battery costs in recent years, the tide is turning once again. This partly reflects declines in key input costs such as lithium, as well as huge growth in global manufacturing capacity, particularly …
18th January 2024
Energy prices will fall in 2024, although we think the big falls are now behind us. Supply has not been directly affected, but the Israel-Hamas conflict together with the tensions in the Red Sea have increased volatility in energy markets. We expect oil …
4th January 2024
Energy prices will remain historically high over the remainder of this year. The Israel-Hamas conflict has increased volatility in energy markets, but supply has not been disrupted. Oil prices will remain high as OPEC+ output cuts keep supply constrained. …
3rd November 2023
2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record, but somewhat ominously the headwinds to the green transition have strengthened this year. Some of these will prove temporary, particularly as short-term policy interest rates start to come down. That …
19th October 2023
Energy prices will remain historically high over the remainder of this year. OPEC+ output cuts, which have kept the oil market constrained, will continue until the end of the year, while demand in the US and China has held up. The natural gas market …
6th September 2023
Energy prices will remain historically high over the remainder of this year, albeit significantly lower than their peak in 2022. Supply in the oil market is constrained and demand appears to be holding up well. The natural gas market appears comfortably …
9th August 2023
China’s recent announcement of export restrictions on two metals used to make semiconductors serves as a reminder that China dominates production of metals needed for the green transition. We have warned in the past that the green transition is unlikely …
20th July 2023
Overview – Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand loomed large and the US dollar strengthened. We think that prices will continue to struggle over the next few months, but energy and metals prices should rise …
7th June 2023
Overview – Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand have intensified and risk appetite has soured. We think prices will continue to struggle over the next few months as tight monetary policy feeds into slowdowns …
16th May 2023
In this new quarterly publication, the Capital Economics’ Climate and Commodities teams will track and analyse developments in the transition to a greener global economy. The sharp increases in the lifetime costs of wind and solar projects since 2021 …
26th April 2023
Overview – We think prices will drop a little further in the coming months as economic slowdowns in advanced economies weigh on commodities demand, even as China’s economic recovery takes hold. However, the prospect of a higher for longer Federal Funds …
2nd March 2023
Overview – We think prices will ease back in the coming months as optimism about China’s reopening is tempered and slower economic activity in advanced economies weighs on demand. However, the prospect of Fed easing and stronger economic growth in 2024 …
3rd February 2023
Overview – Energy prices have been falling recently as concerns about weaker demand took centre-stage, but we expect constrained supply to put a floor under prices in the coming months. By contrast, we expect industrial metals prices to fall further given …
14th September 2022
Overview – Non-energy commodities prices generally fell in June on the back of concerns about the outlook for demand amid global monetary tightening and slower economic growth. Energy prices may also fall a little from here, but constrained supply will …
6th July 2022
Overview – Energy and agricultural prices continued to rise in May as concerns about supply more than offset signs that demand, at least for energy, could soften. We expect prices to remain historically high but to start to ease back later in the year as …
7th June 2022
Overview – Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has generally focused on the effects that the new strain …
7th December 2021
Overview – Natural gas and coal prices soared in September. In turn, this has raised the output costs of industrial metals, most notably those which are especially energy intensive such as aluminium and steel. At the same time, reports suggest that some …
5th October 2021
Overview – After sharp falls in the middle of the month, most commodity prices ended August broadly flat. However, we doubt it will be long before the downward pressure on prices intensifies again. After all, economic growth in most major economies now …
3rd September 2021
Overview – Oil prices were rising in June even before the July OPEC+ meeting ended in disarray, without agreement. Strong growth in demand as economies lift virus-related restrictions is expected to continue to support the prices of all energy commodities …
6th July 2021
Overview – Cold weather in parts of the northern hemisphere helped push up the prices of coal and natural gas last month, while oil prices also rose. We still think that average energy prices will be higher this year than last but expect the prices of …
2nd June 2021
Overview – Strong growth in industrial demand helped push up the prices of energy commodities used primarily in power generation last month, but oil prices slipped back. We continue to expect average energy prices to be higher this year than last, …
12th April 2021
Overview – Oil prices have managed to claw back their lockdown-induced losses from last year, and we think that they will rise in the coming months as demand continues to revive. Meanwhile, natural gas and coal prices generally fell last month, but remain …
3rd March 2021
Overview – Energy commodity prices for the most part ended 2020 on a high, buoyed by strong seasonal demand, an increase in investor risk appetite and a weaker US dollar. And while energy commodities were the underperformer in 2020, they should be the …
7th January 2021
Overview – The prospect of effective COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to most energy commodities in November as they have raised the prospect of higher demand in 2021. We anticipate a particularly strong rebound in oil consumption next year and have raised …
4th December 2020
Overview – Some energy commodities such as natural gas and coal benefitted from a seasonal uplift in demand in September, but oil prices fell. We think that oil and natural gas prices will make a little more ground this year, provided that demand …
6th October 2020
Overview – Energy prices continued to recover in August, but they are still trailing other commodity asset classes as well as other risky assets, such as US equities. We expect that prices for the most part will hold steady for the rest of this year given …
3rd September 2020
Overview – Energy prices continued to recover in June, but they remain significantly lower than at the start of the year. What’s more, we do not expect them to recover to pre-virus levels until 2022 at the earliest. Supply will comfortably meet any rise …
7th July 2020
Overview – The gradual easing of coronavirus-related lockdown restrictions around the world, along with falling global production, has supported the price of oil recently. By contrast, persistent oversupply and lacklustre demand continue to weigh on coal …
5th June 2020
Overview – The prices of most commodities struggled in April against a backdrop of moribund global demand. That said, the performance of energy commodities was mixed: while Brent crude and Henry Hub gas rose in price, the other energy commodities fell. We …
5th May 2020
Overview – Despite the prospect of a massive Saudi Arabian-led production cut, the price of oil has remained low in recent weeks amid a coronavirus-related collapse in demand. By contrast, coal and natural gas prices fared relatively better. This was due …
6th April 2020
Overview – Energy prices have crashed in recent weeks as the coronavirus has disrupted economic activity and reduced demand. Meanwhile, on the supply side, OPEC+ failed to agree to deepen its oil output cuts. We suspect that energy prices could fall …
16th March 2020
Overview – Energy prices slumped in January owing to concerns about the hit to demand from the coronavirus outbreak. The evolution of the epidemic over the coming weeks will determine how lasting its impact will be on energy prices. For now, we are …
5th February 2020
Overview – The easing of US-China trade tensions and the escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions has caused oil prices to surge in recent weeks. In contrast, the prices of natural gas and coal have slumped owing in part to ample supply of natural gas. …
9th January 2020
Overview – Warmer-than-expected weather, amid subdued global economic growth, put downward pressure on the prices of coal and LNG since the start of November. In contrast, the price of oil rose on the back of the agreement that OPEC+ will cut output …
9th December 2019
Overview – Despite signs that the global economy continued to slow in October, only coal prices fell. While we expect global growth to remain subdued in the year ahead, we think that a recession will be avoided, which underpins our forecast of somewhat …
5th November 2019
Overview – Energy prices diverged in September. There were strong gains in European gas and coal prices in part owing to strikes at France’s utilities at a time when seasonal demand is also picking up. Meanwhile, oil prices have been falling amid fears …
3rd October 2019
Oil & Gasoline – Oil prices continued to fall last month on concerns about a slowing global economy and rising US-China protectionism. Our forecast of a further downturn in global growth suggests prices could fall by more. That said, supply is …
6th September 2019
Oil & Gasoline – The price of oil declined over the past month as US-China trade tensions escalated, adding to fears that the global economy will continue to slow. Looking ahead, we think that demand growth will be subdued as the Chinese economy remains …
2nd August 2019
Oil & Gasoline – Oil prices rose a little in June on a combination of escalating US-Iran tensions, signs of a truce in the US-China trade war and the expectation that OPEC+ would extend its production cuts. However, prices have already eased back. In our …
4th July 2019
