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Saudi’s gigaprojects stick or twist moment Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week have added to the growing discourse of whether the Kingdom can afford, both literally and figuratively, to continue with its vast suite …
16th May 2024
Is the UAE set to butt heads with OPEC again? The UAE‘s announcement that its oil production capacity has been raised ahead of schedule provides further evidence of its desire to raise actual output. But with growing rumours that OPEC may hold off from …
9th May 2024
Is Saudi Arabia moving away from China’s orbit? Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are close to a new security pact would, if confirmed, cause us to re-evaluate our view of the Kingdom’s alignment in a fracturing global economy. Prior to the start of …
2nd May 2024
Stalling privatisation drive a blot on Egypt’s reforms Having previously pledged to reinvigorate its state privatisation drive, Egyptian officials have significantly pared back their targets. This could remain the one demerit on its IMF report card. …
25th April 2024
Gulf find itself in a bind if conflict escalates The ratcheting up of tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel over the past couple of weeks has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, though, it seems unlikely that the Gulf …
18th April 2024
How is Egypt’s policy shift one month on It’s now been just over a month since Egypt’s “ Super Wednesday ” policy shift and, while it is still early days, the signs so far are positive and this time might be different to past policy U-turns. After …
11th April 2024
The threat of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel is at its highest point since the war in Gaza began. A full-blown war would not only have major repercussions for Iran’s own economy, but the spillovers into oil markets could have a significant …
4th April 2024
Egypt policy shift to get final seal of approval Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors but it will not be painless and economic growth will be sluggish this year and next. And there is a lot more work to do to …
28th March 2024
Egypt: appreciation for the CBE’s policy shift After the “Super Wednesday” devaluation on 6 th March, the pound has appreciated over the past week or so and it appears as though officials have (so far) stuck to their pledge to let the currency move more …
21st March 2024
Higher inflation a cost to Egypt’s policy shift The fall in the Egyptian pound last week has raised concerns of a fresh surge in inflation, which wasn’t helped by February’s strong reading. However, while we may see another acceleration in March, we think …
14th March 2024
The raft of policy reforms announced by the Egyptian authorities yesterday, including a devaluation of the pound and new IMF deal, has put the economy on a path out of its current crisis. There have been false dawns before, but we think that momentum is …
7th March 2024
Even with Ras el Hekma deal, Egypt needs the IMF Headlines in the past week have been dominated by Egypt’s deal to sell the Ras el Hekma project to the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, to provide crucial foreign currency inflows. But, even with this …
29th February 2024
Tunisia: threat of messy crisis and default builds Tunisia managed to meet a Eurobond repayment this week but only by draining its already-low FX reserves. In the meantime, steps were also taken towards deficit monetisation, taking Tunisia further down …
22nd February 2024
Saudi’s loose fiscal stance to continue (for now) Data released yesterday confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 as a whole and, as the government maintains high spending levels despite lower oil prices, the Kingdom will run larger …
15th February 2024
Bahrain taps bond market as repayments near This week, Bahrain became the latest emerging market to issue dollar bonds which will help it meet large upcoming debt repayments. But fiscal policy will need to be tightened in the coming years to put the …
8th February 2024
Why has the Saudi gov’t changed Aramco’s policy? Aramco announced this week that it received a directive from the Saudi state to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but we don’t think this is a sign that actual output will remain low for …
1st February 2024
Is Egypt setting the stage for ‘Super Thursday’? IMF officials have been in Egypt over the past week to discuss a new financing package and, while no details have filtered through, momentum is building fast and there’s a chance that all will be revealed …
25th January 2024
Egypt needs enhanced IMF deal urgently Egypt’s foreign currency woes remained in the spotlight this week, highlighting the importance of getting an enhanced IMF deal over the line in order to avoid a disorderly balance of payments crisis. This week …
18th January 2024
Egypt’s policy shift and IMF deal edging closer Meetings this week between Egypt, the IMF, and the US took place following the release of a draft economic plan, which points to the expansion of the current IMF deal and a renewed shift towards economic …
11th January 2024
Egypt tightening the purse strings as IMF deal nears In Egypt, 2024 started off with a raft of price hikes as officials seek to tighten fiscal policy and warm relations with the IMF ahead of an anticipated enhancement of the current deal. The increases …
4th January 2024
Red Sea crisis adds to Egypt’s external strains Attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea have prompted major shipping companies to reduce their traffic through the Suez Canal. This deals a blow to Egypt’s hard currency revenues when it desperately needs …
21st December 2023
Egypt: Year one of al-Sisi’s third term will be crucial Figures over the weekend showed that inflation in Egypt slowed but, with President al-Sisi all but confirmed to be re-elected, policy moves over the coming weeks will dictate how inflation develops …
14th December 2023
Egypt: aftermath of election to prove pivotal Next week Egyptians will head to the polls to vote in the presidential election and, while it is widely expected President al-Sisi will be re-elected, the vote could act as a trigger for policy moves that are …
7th December 2023
All eyes on Vienna and Dubai The UN’s annual climate conference, COP28, gets underway in Dubai today with thousands of delegates set to attend. But events in Vienna could take the spotlight. OPEC+’s delayed meeting is taking place as we speak and could …
30th November 2023
Tensions within OPEC+ rise as threat of cut looms OPEC+ was meant to be in the spotlight this weekend but, in a surprise move, the meeting has been delayed until Thursday. The slide in oil prices and the Israel-Hamas conflict suggest that output quotas …
23rd November 2023
Saudi’s new Civil Code another step to attract FDI In a month’s time, Saudi Arabia’s new Civil Code will come into force in a bid to further entice foreign investors to the Kingdom, but more is required to hit Vision 2030 targets. The Civil Code contains …
16th November 2023
Saudi’s FDI revision paints a slightly better picture The Saudi Press Agency released a statement on Tuesday revealing that foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Kingdom has been much stronger than previously thought. But there is still work to be done …
9th November 2023
Egypt’s gas troubles after Israel cuts supplies Egyptian officials confirmed this week that imports of gas fell to zero after Israel turned off the taps, which will curtail efforts to restart LNG exports. And with gas being cut to energy-intensive …
2nd November 2023
Saudi real estate market stuck in a gully The mortgage market in Saudi Arabia has struggled this year as interest rates have surged, which appears to be adding to the trend of the past few years of suppressed land and house prices. Data published over the …
26th October 2023
Could Egypt’s financing fears be set to ease? Reports over the past week have suggested that Egypt could be poised to leverage its position in the region to receive financial support in exchange for helping to de-escalate the Israel-Hamas conflict . …
19th October 2023
The outbreak of conflict between Hamas and Israel this week has not yet spilled over into the wider region. But the situation is in flux and, if Iran is pulled into direct conflict, the ramifications for the region would be a lot larger. Since we …
12th October 2023
Al-Sisi confirms his running; UAE opens swap line Egypt’s incumbent President al-Sisi has confirmed he will run for re-election in December in a race that he is almost certain to win. The policy paralysis induced by this election has prompted central …
5th October 2023
Will December’s election pave way for EGP move? Egypt’s National Election Authority confirmed this week that the presidential election will take place in December. As we highlighted , this adds to reasons to think the shift to orthodoxy will remain on …
28th September 2023
Is Egypt set for the polls before year-end? Reports that Egypt’s presidential election, originally scheduled for 2024, could be held before the end of this year may help to explain the recent policy paralysis with regards to the pound. The National …
21st September 2023
All eyes on the CBE The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) resumed its tightening cycle in August and, with inflation rising further, we expect interest rates to be hiked again. More than anything, though, investors will be looking for any shift in the exchange …
14th September 2023
Saudi oil output cut rollover a significant GDP hit Earlier this week Saudi Arabia confirmed that it will extend its additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut until the end of this year which will result in a significant hit to economic growth this …
7th September 2023
What’s driving the slide in SAMA’s assets? The drop in the Saudi Central Bank’s (SAMA) foreign assets to a 14-year low in July caused some concern this week, but we suspect this reflects funds being recycled to the Public Investment Fund. Figures …
31st August 2023
Time for a new acronym Earlier today it was confirmed that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iran, Argentina, and Ethiopia were all being invited to join the BRICS bloc and, while this is unlikely to have major economic effects in the near term, the possible …
24th August 2023
Egypt: debt jumps, but primary surplus widens Data released this week showed that Egypt’s public debt ratio jumped in the last fiscal year, but a further improvement in the primary budget position reinforces our view that the government will be able to …
17th August 2023
Aramco’s profit slump ≠ austerity The slump in the profits of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, in Q2 has focussed attention on the deterioration in the Kingdom’s budget position. But the authorities appear to be taking as many steps as possible …
10th August 2023
A surge in SAIBOR sets up SAMA to take stage The tightening of monetary conditions in Saudi Arabia since early 2022 has caused interest rates to rise rapidly. This week the Saudi Arabian Interbank Rate (SAIBOR) hit a record high. To prevent credit growth …
3rd August 2023
Mbappé or not, Saudi gov’t focussed on sports The Saudi Pro League went from the back pages to the front pages this week as Al-Hilal (a football club recently acquired by the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund) made a world record $335mn bid for PSG’s Kylian …
27th July 2023
Saudi-UAE tensions pose a threat to OPEC+ A Wall Street Journal report this week highlighted the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have been simmering for some time. If these persist, one risk is that the UAE will seek to leave OPEC+. The …
20th July 2023
Note: We’ll be discussing macro and market risks around El Niño’s return in a 20-minute briefing on Wednesday, 19th July. Click here to register. Egypt getting back on the right path for reforms A round of state asset sales announced in Egypt this week …
13th July 2023
Saudi and Russia add to bearish oil tone Saudi Arabia announced that it will extend its voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut at least one more month, which came along with the news that Russia plans to cut exports by 500,000bpd too. The decision to roll over …
6th July 2023
Egypt’s path to largest MENA economy by 2050 In an Emerging Markets Update published this week, we highlighted which EMs will rise up the global league table. Within MENA, Egypt’s economy will take Saudi Arabia’s crown as the region’s largest economy by …
28th June 2023
Egypt: fiscal policy on right path, but not yet for EGP The key message from the briefing that we attended with Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohamed Maait in London last Friday was the government’s commitment to tight fiscal policy and that a devaluation is …
22nd June 2023
Could SAMA step in again to support credit growth? Interbank rates in Saudi Arabia are running at their highest since 2001 following the monetary policy tightening over the past year or so and, with lingering concerns over the banking sectors liquidity, …
15th June 2023
Is Saudi Arabia taking its eye off the ball? Outside of the usual economics newsflow this week, Saudi Arabia has been the hot topic in the footballing and golfing world. It was announced control of four Saudi Pro League clubs is being transferred to the …
8th June 2023
All eyes on OPEC+ Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting is going to be a closely watched affair amid speculation that Saudi Arabia will push for another oil output cut. Our expectation is that OPEC+ will stick with current output quotas. (Listen to an on-demand …
1st June 2023