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We think the Fed and most other developed markets (DM) central banks will be able to ease monetary policy this year and next more than investors currently anticipate. DM bond yields will end 2024 below their current levels, putting downward pressure on …
29th April 2024
We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will deliver a bit more policy rate cuts this year and next than investors currently anticipate. As a result, we forecast that Treasury yields will end 2024 slightly below their current levels, putting …
28th February 2024
Our latest Global Markets Chart Pack is embedded below. We think that the Fed and several other DM central banks will deliver more policy rate cuts this year and next than investors currently anticipate. As a result, we forecast that Treasury yields will …
30th January 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
Our View: We are more dovish than investors regarding the amount of rate cuts that the Fed – and several other DM central banks – will deliver next year. As a result, we forecast that Treasury yields will fall further over the next year or so, putting …
30th November 2023
Our View: Growth in the US and other advanced economies will disappoint, keeping pressure on “risky” assets but favouring “safe” ones. But when the economic environment improves, “riskier” assets will rebound, with equities further boosted by enthusiasm …
31st October 2023
Growth in most advanced economies will disappoint later this year, putting pressure on “risky” assets and favouring “safe” ones. Developed markets (DM) government bond yields will therefore decrease further, helped by central banks shifting towards easing …
31st August 2023
Our View : Growth in most advanced economies will disappoint later this year, putting pressure on “risky” assets and favouring “safe” ones. Developed markets (DM) government bond yields will therefore decrease further, helped by central banks shifting …
28th July 2023
Recent gains in the US stock market have been unusually narrow, and we don’t think the conditions are yet in place for a broad-based rally. A striking fact about the recent gains in US equities is that they have been driven by a remarkably small number of …
31st May 2023
Click here to read the full report. We think the economic recovery in China will support further gains in the country’s equity market. Despite some renewed evidence that China’s economy has been recovering more strongly than most anticipated in the first …
3rd May 2023
We think disappointing global growth will be a headwind for “risky” assets in developed markets (DMs) during the second half of this year. So far, this month has been a tale of two halves . Over the first part of the month, investors looked like they were …
27th April 2023
We think even if some of the recent headwinds that have buffeted emerging market (EM) assets fade, a slowdown in global growth might keep them under pressure in the near term. EM assets have had a fairly tough month . Local-currency and …
28th February 2023
Investors seem to have become more worried about inflation recently, with evidence that the global economy is holding up better than expected suggesting underlying price pressures might prove more persistent than hoped. That’s taken a toll on both “safe” …
23rd February 2023
We think the rapid economic recovery in China will lead to further gains in equities in China and other emerging markets (EM) this year. Despite some recent weakness, equities in China have rallied since the end of October, as a shift toward living with …
31st January 2023
Although there has been some good news for risky assets over the past couple of months, we still think they will struggle before long as economic growth disappoints in major advanced economies. The global equity market rally that began at the back end of …
30th January 2023
We think investors are still too optimistic on global growth, and that “risky” assets will struggle over the first half of 2023 as a result. Investors seem increasingly to have come around to our view on inflation over the past couple of months, namely …
22nd December 2022
Although Chinese stocks have reversed a two year or so downward trend in the past month amid hopes that zero-COVID policies will end, we doubt this is a sign of things to come in the near term. Since its trough on 31 st October, the MSCI China Index has …
1st December 2022
Most developed market (DM) government bonds and equity benchmarks have rallied over the past month or so, but we doubt this twin rally will persist. While we think bond yields will end 2023 lower than they are now as inflationary pressures ease, we expect …
25th November 2022
With monetary tightening cycles approaching their ends in many emerging markets (EMs), we think local-currency (LC) sovereign bond yields will, in general, be much lower in a couple of years than they are now. But we anticipate a significant amount …
4th October 2022
While the Bank of England’s temporary U-turn on its balance sheet has caused Gilts to rally strongly, we suspect their yields will remain high for some time yet. The Bank of England dramatically intervened in the Gilt market on Wednesday in response …
29th September 2022
We think developed market (DM) monetary policy may be a threat to emerging market (EM) assets for some time yet . Hawkish monetary policy has arguably been the biggest headwind for global financial markets this year. Rapid upward revisions to …
31st August 2022
The rebound in the prices of “risky” assets has stalled recently and we expect it to go into reverse over the rest of this year as economic growth in many major DMs disappoints and appetite for risk deteriorates. Risky assets generally continued to …
26th August 2022
We expect the yields of emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) and dollar sovereign bonds to rise further and EM equities to lose more ground as “risk-free” rates continue to climb and global economic growth disappoints . EM bonds and equities have come …
30th June 2022
We think developed market (DM) government bond yields will rise further while equity and corporate bond prices fall further, as central banks press ahead with tightening and the global economy slows. The past few weeks have brought hawkish surprises from …
29th June 2022
While the yields of emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) and dollar-denominated sovereign bonds have dropped back in recent weeks, we expect them to resume their rise before long . After trending up for most of this year, the yields of 10-year LC …
31st May 2022
We think “risky” assets will continue to struggle over the next year or so, even if a recession is avoided in most major developed markets (DMs) . Risky assets, which had already come under significant pressure earlier this year, have continued to …
24th May 2022
As a result of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Fed’s hawkish pivot, we have tweaked our forecasts for most major emerging market (EM) assets. The big picture, though, is that we still think EM equities will generally make small gains over the remainder of …
30th March 2022
The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and to lower our projections for DM equities generally . …
23rd March 2022
The threat of sanctions has weighed on Russia’s stock market recently, but even if tensions abated we wouldn’t expect it to make big gains over the next couple of years. Russia’s equities have been volatile lately, but the big picture is that the tensions …
18th February 2022
Even if tensions between Russia and Ukraine abated, we wouldn’t expect risky assets to gain all that much over the rest of this year and next, mainly because we think ongoing monetary tightening would continue to keep a lid on any rally. Risky assets have …
16th February 2022
While many central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has gone in the opposite direction. We think the easing cycle in China has further to run, and that this will contribute to a further …
22nd December 2021
While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past decade . After rising sharply in October, the S&P 500 …
21st December 2021
Spillovers to other emerging markets (EMs) from Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis have been limited so far and we think this will remain the case even if Turkey’s financial markets remain under pressure . Turkey’s financial markets generally have taken a …
24th November 2021
US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one of the reasons why we forecast the yields of long-dated …
19th November 2021
Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Worries about Evergrande have continued to weigh on stock markets in China and …
22nd September 2021
We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years . The remarkable rally in Japan’s stock market over the past couple of weeks, following the resignation of the …
17th September 2021
We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). This month’s activity data out of China emphasised how the country’s economy has continued to slow. The latest …
27th August 2021
A year after the Fed announced its new policy framework, we think that bond markets still don’t fully reflect the likelihood of a prolonged period of above-target inflation. While much of investors’ attention at the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference later …
25th August 2021
We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here. Over the past month the tightening cycle among EM central …
29th June 2021
The hawkish surprise delivered by the Fed at its latest meeting and the subsequent market reaction have not changed our view that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end the year higher and that the “rotation trade” in equity markets will resume before …
24th June 2021
We forecast that emerging market (EM) equities will make further gains between now and end-2022 as the global economy recovers further. However, they have lost a bit of ground to developed market (DM) equities recently and we doubt they will perform much …
27th May 2021
While inflation fears have taken some steam out of the US stock market rally recently, we still think that equities in the US, and elsewhere, will make further gains over the next couple of years. Much of the focus in the markets over the past few weeks …
20th May 2021
We have become more pessimistic about the outlook for emerging market (EM) assets and currencies as we now expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise further over the next two years . EM assets and currencies have come under pressure recently. (See …
1st April 2021
We now think that 10-year government bond yields in most developed markets (DMs) will rise further. However, we think that they will climb more rapidly in the US than elsewhere in the developed world. As such, we have revised up our forecast for the US …
31st March 2021
We still expect emerging market (EM) “risky” assets and currencies to make further gains this year, despite growing concerns about another “taper tantrum”. EM assets and currencies have made significant gains since their troughs last year. And we think …
23rd February 2021
In our view, central banks’ cautious approach to tightening means that the yields of 10-year government bonds will rise only slowly in the next few years, even as the global economy recovers further. Since the last DM Markets Chart Book on 16 th December, …
18th February 2021
Positive vaccine news has not changed our view that monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) will generally remain loose for some time yet. That is a key reason why we still expect EM local currency government bonds yields to stay low by historical …
18th December 2020
We think there is scope for global equities to make more headway over the next couple of years, against the backdrop of a recovering global economy and supportive monetary and fiscal policy. November saw the biggest monthly increases in MSCI’s World Index …
16th December 2020
Equities and bonds in emerging markets (EMs) rallied sharply on the vaccine news earlier this month, particularly outside of Asia. We think they will continue to fare well as the global economy recovers. The reaction of EM assets to the vaccine news …
27th November 2020
We continue to think that stock markets will make further headway against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy, as investors increasingly focus on the rollout of effective vaccines rather than on rising …
25th November 2020
