Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Markets Economics Use setting Emerging Markets Economics
Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global shocks, they have also underscored some flaws with China’s …
16th May 2024
All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal US import tariff or a dollar devaluation, and those …
29th April 2024
We hosted an online briefing to discuss EM financial risks in more detail. Watch the recording here . Our risk indicators are presented as an interactive EM dashboard on our website here . The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing …
20th March 2024
The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and South Africa that are endowed with the raw materials …
4th March 2024
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
16th November 2023
The AI revolution will make EM income convergence – or “catch-up growth” – harder as richer economies are better equipped to deploy the technology on a wide scale. It poses a particular headwind to the services-driven economic development path pursued by …
2nd November 2023
We think emerging market (EM) equities in Asia will outperform those in EMEA and Latin America over the next couple of years, although we doubt they’ll do better than developed market (DM) equities. EM equities have struggled this year, at least judging …
15th September 2023
Labour markets look very tight in Central Europe and a handful of other EMs (particularly in Latin America), and we think that wage growth is unlikely to fall far enough in these countries to bring inflation back to target in the near future. One …
2nd March 2023
Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major problem in a handful of EMs such as South Africa, India …
17th November 2022
The post-pandemic recovery in travel and tourism still has some way to go in parts of the world that have been slower to lift restrictions, such as in Asia. And China’s reluctance to move away from its zero-COVID approach means tourism for leisure …
15th September 2022
The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets, mitigating much of the risk of the “classic” emerging …
11th May 2022
For the most part, EMs are well placed to withstand rising US interest rates, but there are pockets of vulnerability where external financing needs are significant. Among the large EMs, Turkey (unsurprisingly) stands out, and current account risks are …
22nd March 2022
Inflation hasn’t emerged as a concern across Emerging Asia in the same way it has in the rest of the emerging world, in part because food price inflation in Asia is much lower, but also because the region has experienced much less disruption from the …
22nd November 2021
The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already faced. However, the risk of permanent scarring in many …
9th September 2021
A rise in US Treasury yields and tightening of external financial conditions could cause vulnerabilities in Turkey and a handful of smaller frontier markets to crystallise. However, most major EMs’ dependence on capital inflows looks limited. Instead, in …
12th April 2021
This Focus sets out a framework for thinking about how the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will affect the outlook for EMs. For much of Emerging Europe and Chile, these developments may allow economies to return to normal more quickly than we had …
30th November 2020
Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could benefit as investments to mitigate climate change …
19th November 2020
Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South Africa), and greater emphasis on growth over inflation by …
13th October 2020
It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government policies, many economies should be able more or less to …
29th June 2020
The impact of the coronavirus means aggregate EM GDP is likely to have contracted in q/q terms for the first time since the global financial crisis in Q1. If the outbreak is contained quickly, most lost output should be recovered later in the year. But if …
12th February 2020
2020 will be a year in which EM GDP growth edges up and many major central banks catch investors by surprise. This Focus outlines our key calls for next year. 1. Policymakers in China will ease monetary policy significantly as the economy slows . Growth …
18th December 2019
While the downside risks of a global trade war are often overstated, we think the bigger concern is that the world splits into competing regional blocs that do not cooperate on trade or investment. This could cause global supply chains to splinter and …
22nd October 2019
Globalisation has peaked, with any further major integration unlikely. In fact, a policy-driven period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely. Flows of trade and foreign direct investment have flattened off as a share of nominal GDP over the past …
15th October 2019
We estimate that the current wave of globalisation is responsible for around a third of the pick-up in global per capita income growth since 1990. Almost all of that reflects an improvement in productivity growth in emerging economies. For advanced …
10th October 2019
History shows that waves of globalisation are driven by both technology and policy, but protectionist shifts alone tend to end them. In some cases, like in the 1970s, a moderate pushback by policymakers can cause globalisation to stall. But the experience …
8th October 2019
The key determinants of EM political risk premiums are the type of political shock and the strength of an economy’s external balance sheet. With this in mind, Ukraine and Argentina have the greatest potential to suffer large and long-lasting political …
1st May 2019
Widespread expectations for a sustained rebound in emerging market growth after the slowdown of recent years will be disappointed. The 2000s were a transient “Golden Age” for the emerging world, with a number of one-off supports for rapid growth that …
13th October 2016