Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Overview – We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with the EU will hold …
28th January 2020
Mortgage approvals rise in December The UK Finance mortgage approvals data provides further tentative evidence that demand picked up at the end of 2019. But with Brexit-related uncertainty set to intensify later this year and with the housing fundamentals …
27th January 2020
Overview – While the decisive election result could lead to a modest increase in housing demand over the next couple of years, we doubt that this will translate into a substantive pick-up in transactions or house prices. Indeed, any improvement in …
23rd January 2020
Commercial and residential credit availability diverges Mortgage availability rose in Q4, as competition between lenders picked up. But with banks competing on price, rather than lowering their credit standards, we think the housing market fundamentals …
16th January 2020
Strong end to 2019 according to RICS Despite the RICS data pointing to a jump in active demand and supply in December, we doubt that will translate into a substantive increase in either transactions or house price growth this year. Indeed, with the …
Lower than expected interest rates would do little to boost house prices. After all, a shallower path for Bank Rate would reflect weaker than expected economic conditions. And in any case, there is only limited scope for further rate cuts, while mortgage …
10th January 2020
Second jump in house prices The Halifax index recorded another jump in house prices in December. This could signal a Boris bounce, but with price gains on the other main indices much weaker, today’s data probably overstate the strength of the market. …
8th January 2020
House purchase lending edges up in November November saw a marginal rise in house purchase mortgage approvals, suggesting that pre-election uncertainty had little effect on housing market activity. Looking ahead, given high house prices, a lack of homes …
3rd January 2020
House prices rose by 1.4% in 2019 Annual house price growth accelerated in December, ending the year a little faster than expected. But that pick-up largely reflected base effects. Looking ahead, with house prices still very high and mortgage interest …
Downward price pressures in London have eased, driven by a slump in homes coming up for sale. But with house prices high and mortgage interest rates close to their floor, that is unlikely to drive a recovery in prices soon. Rather, we expect a 1% fall in …
20th December 2019
Political uncertainty has eased following the election result, but the housing market fundamentals leave little room for a recovery in price growth or transactions in 2020. Combined with waning support from Help to Buy, weak housing market conditions will …
16th December 2019
Gloomy month for housing demand November’s survey data support our view that the housing market will struggle to gain any upward momentum next year. After all, with house prices high and mortgage interest rates unable to fall much further, we expect …
12th December 2019
High LTV lending hits 11 year high Lower prices have encouraged borrowers to take out higher LTV loans. But lenders have maintained their credit scoring standards and maximum LTI ratios, and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. Combined with the …
10th December 2019
Housing market activity and house price growth showed few signs of improvement at the end of 2019. Indeed, activity has, if anything, been cooling. (See Chart 1.) That partly reflects economic and political uncertainty. But the big picture is that high …
9th December 2019
The Halifax index once again an outlier The sharp acceleration in house price growth recorded by the Halifax in November was an outlier, and is unlikely to be repeated in the coming months. Indeed, we expect house price growth to stay at or below 2% y/y …
6th December 2019
Relative to past norms, returns on residential property will underperform over the next few years. But with commercial capital values dragged down by the retail sector, institutional investment in the residential private rented sector will nonetheless …
5th December 2019
Construction falls for seventh consecutive month November’s headline construction PMI increased from last month, which pointed towards the slowest decline in construction output since July. Nevertheless, it continues to point to a deterioration. The …
3rd December 2019
Labour and the Conservatives have pulled their punches on housing policy. Indeed, only Labour’s pledge to boost social housing construction would materially affect the market. As a result, we expect the outcome of the election to have little impact on …
29th November 2019
Drop in mortgage approvals House purchase mortgage approvals fell sharply in October. Looking ahead, even if uncertainty were to lift at the start of next year, the housing market fundamentals do not support a pick-up in activity. We think growth in …
House price growth accelerates in November We wouldn’t read too much into November’s pick-up in house price growth. Indeed, the big picture is that, even if the economic and political uncertainty eases next year, house price growth will pick up only a …
28th November 2019
Mortgage approvals edge down in October Given the political and economic uncertainty, October’s drop in house purchase mortgage approvals came as little surprise. And even if uncertainty were to clear in the coming months, high house prices will keep …
26th November 2019
With housebuilders already close to capacity, the sector will struggle to sustain a further surge in output. As a result, if elected, we think Labour would likely to miss their manifesto commitment to build 150,000 council and social homes per year by the …
22nd November 2019
Housing completions have reached their highest level in over three decades. But timelier data on housing starts point to a weakening pipeline of construction. On that basis, we think housing completions could fall by 10% over the next three or four years. …
15th November 2019
Housing market activity faltering Against the uncertain political backdrop and with the economy weakening, the RICS survey data point to a weak near-term outlook for the housing market. Indeed, with house prices already very high and set to stay that way, …
14th November 2019
After a brief mid-year recovery, economic and political uncertainty is once again discouraging housing market activity. In all, the near term outlook for both housing sales and house prices is therefore weak. But beyond that, even if Brexit uncertainty …
8th November 2019
Annual house price growth slips below 1% Slowing house price growth on the Halifax index brought it closer to the other main price measures. With house prices high compared to incomes and interest rates close to their floor, we don’t expect a pick-up in …
7th November 2019
First increase in four months, but no recovery in sight October’s headline construction PMI increased for the first time in four months. But it continues to point to a deterioration in construction activity. Further, with Brexit-uncertainty prolonged, a …
4th November 2019
The Brexit extension and general election leaves the housing market outlook even more uncertain than a week ago. What’s more, given the vast distance between the two main political parties’ approach to the housing market, the December election could prove …
1st November 2019
Lending struggles to grow in September Mortgage approvals for house purchase and remortgaging rose in September, but annual growth in both were still weak. Looking ahead, the outlook is subdued. Even if a Brexit deal is agreed soon, house purchase …
29th October 2019
House prices continue to stagnate House prices saw subdued growth in October. And while in wage-adjusted terms, prices are on a gradual downward trajectory, any meaningful downward adjustment will take time. Looking ahead, we expect house price inflation …
Overview – Regardless of what happens with Brexit in the months ahead, a revival in the owner occupier housing market is unlikely. Even if a Brexit deal is agreed soon, we expect to see only a small improvement in housing market transactions and house …
24th October 2019
Mortgage lending weakens Mortgage approvals among the high street banks slipped in September. And while annual growth on the UK Finance measure has stayed strong, that reflects a shift in market share towards the main high street banks. The big picture is …
Lenders continue to tighten credit A weaker economic outlook and stronger risk aversion among lenders led banks to tighten credit availability in Q3. What’s more, lending to commercial property was also reined in. According the Bank of England’s Credit …
17th October 2019
London has led the fall in housebuilding, but more recently, construction has fallen sharply in nearly every region. Looking ahead, given continued economic uncertainty, housing starts are on track to see a sizable fall in 2019 – regardless of Brexit. But …
16th October 2019
Overview – Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31 st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our scenarios based on different Brexit outcomes …
14th October 2019
Housing market activity slumps in September According to the RICS survey, buyer and seller numbers fell sharply in September, as renewed uncertainty hit housing market confidence. But the big picture is that, even if Brexit uncertainty were to be resolved …
10th October 2019
Subdued house price growth here to stay September’s fall in the Halifax house price index chimes with the message from the alternative measures and suggests that house price inflation is subdued. Indeed, with house prices already high and interest rates …
7th October 2019
Housing starts fall again Housing starts fell for a third consecutive quarter in Q2, pushing the pace of construction down to its lowest level in three years. Looking ahead, with Help-to-Buy set to be pared back and wider housing market activity set to …
3rd October 2019
Construction output set to drop in Q3 The fall in the headline construction PMI in September suggests that construction output contracted in Q3. For the commercial property sector, the softer supply pipeline may limit rental values falls. Meanwhile, we …
2nd October 2019
House price growth subdued The subdued picture for house price growth is unlikely to improve anytime soon. Even if a no deal Brexit disruption is avoided, we think high house prices, mortgage regulation and rising interest rates will keep house price …
1st October 2019
Approvals down despite strong price competition Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in August, more than reversing the gains seen in June and July. Looking ahead, despite evidence of strong price competition among mortgage lenders, we think a …
30th September 2019
House purchase mortgage approvals set to stay subdued August’s fall in house purchase mortgage approvals more than reversed July’s rise. And while price competition among mortgage lenders remains fierce, this has largely not translated into higher lending …
25th September 2019
The brief rise in London buyer activity proved to be short lived, suggesting that the capital’s housing market malaise has further to run. Indeed, even if a no-deal Brexit is avoided, we expect London’s house price decline to intensify, with prices to end …
24th September 2019
Increased competition among lenders has caused mortgage interest rates to fall in recent months. But funding costs are set to remain pretty stable. That, combined with already tight interest margins and increased regulation, leaves limited scope for rates …
20th September 2019
Stamp duty changes previously hinted at by the Prime Minister could affect over half of all home buyers, with more expensive homes seeing substantial savings. While the effect on house prices would be minimal, it could provide a modest boost to …
19th September 2019
Housing demand stagnates once more Having seen a small improvement across June and July, housing demand lost all upward momentum in August. Looking ahead, given the high level of house prices and ongoing political uncertainty, a recovery in house price …
12th September 2019
Mortgage price war is making its mark Price cuts from lenders have helped to push up the share of high LTV loans and fixed-rate deals, suggesting that the mortgage price war is increasingly making its mark. But there is little sign that lenders have …
10th September 2019
After spending much of the last year as an outlier, IHS Markit has fixed the Halifax index. In line with the other main measures, the index is now recording sluggish house price growth. And with the usual month-on-month volatility now greatly reduced, the …
6th September 2019
Renewed Halifax Index broadly in line with other measures While the revamped Halifax House Price Index pointed to slightly faster annual house price growth in August, it is a far cry from the unusually strong rates shown by the old series. Nonetheless, …