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Manufacturing sector remains under pressure Manufacturing PMIs declined in most countries in Emerging Asia. Weak demand and elevated inventory levels are likely to continue to weigh on manufacturing output in Asia over the coming quarters. May …
1st June 2023
GDP figures released earlier today show the economy bounced back strongly in the first quarter of the year. Provided political stability is maintained, the economy is well placed to grow strongly in 2023. GDP rose by 1.9% q/q in Q1 following the 1.1% fall …
15th May 2023
The economy expanded in Q1 but failed to completely offset the decline from the previous quarter. Growth is likely to remain weak over the coming quarters as elevated interest rates and weak external demand drag on activity. According to figures published …
12th May 2023
Growth slowed in Q1 and we expect the economy to weaken further over the coming quarters against a backdrop of weak global demand and high interest rates. According to the advanced estimate published today, GDP rose by 1.1% q/q last quarter, down from …
11th May 2023
Economic growth in Indonesia was unchanged at 5.0% y/y in the first quarter of the year, but we think growth will slow over coming months as tight monetary policy and weaker exports drag on activity. Before the pandemic GDP growth was very close to 5.0% …
5th May 2023
Manufacturing sector remains under pressure A simple average of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia rose slightly in April but this was almost entirely driven by a large jump in Thailand’s headline index to a record high. Weak global demand and high …
2nd May 2023
Taiwan’s GDP contracted sharply in the first quarter of the year, as a slump in exports put the economy into a technical recession. We think the economy will struggle over the coming quarters as weak external demand and a fading reopening boost drag on …
28th April 2023
GDP in Korea rose slightly during the first quarter of the year but we think the economy faces a difficult year ahead as high interest rates and weak external demand weigh on output. According to the advance estimate for Q1 GDP published today, the …
25th April 2023
Note: Join our 6th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Production likely to remain weak ahead Manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia dropped back in March, driven by a fall in the new export orders and …
3rd April 2023
Vietnam’s economy slowed sharply in the first quarter and we expect growth to remain weak this year due to the challenging external demand backdrop and the lagged impact of monetary policy tightening. Vietnam’s GDP data should be taken with a pinch of …
29th March 2023
Economy likely to remain weak despite some encouraging signs GDP figures released today for Sri Lanka highlight the scale of the economic damage caused by last year’s political crisis and debt default. While there are some tentative signs that the worst …
15th March 2023
Signs of improvement Manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia rose in February, helped by a rebound in the export orders sub-component. While the data provide the first tentative signs that the worst may be over for the region’s manufacturers, the recovery is …
1st March 2023
Thailand’s economy contracted sharply in the final quarter of last year, as a strong recovery in the tourism sector was unable to compensate for weakness elsewhere. Looking beyond the weak fourth quarter though, we think the economy is likely to benefit …
17th February 2023
The economy slowed sharply in Q4 and we expect growth to remain tepid and well below-trend over the coming months as multi-decade high interest rates and weak global demand weigh on prospects. The revised estimate for Q4 GDP, published today, shows that …
13th February 2023
GDP contracted sharply in Q4 2022 and we think the economy will continue to struggle in the coming quarters as high interest rates, weak external demand and tepid consumption activity drag on prospects. Economic output fell by 2.6% q/q in Q4 after growing …
10th February 2023
Economic growth in Indonesia slowed in the final quarter of last year and further weakness is likely as weak global demand, high inflation and elevated interest rates drag on activity. Today’s figures show that Indonesia grew by 5.0% y/y in Q4 2022, which …
6th February 2023
Manufacturing still downbeat and outlook remains bleak Manufacturing PMIs edged up slightly in January but remained subdued overall. We continue to expect weak global demand and elevated interest rates to drag on manufacturing activity in the coming …
1st February 2023
Growth slowed in Q4 and we expect the economy to weaken further over the coming quarters against a backdrop of weak global demand, high interest rates and elevated inflation. According to the advanced estimate published today, GDP rose by 2.4% q/q in Q4 …
26th January 2023
Economic output fell in the final quarter of 2022, and we think the economy will continue to struggle over the coming year as high interest rates and weak overseas demand weigh on prospects. Our 2023 growth forecasts are well below the consensus. …
25th January 2023
Taiwan’s economy unexpectedly contracted in Q4, driven by a sharp fall in exports. We expect the economy to remain weak over the coming quarters as exports struggle amid a global recession and higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand. According to …
18th January 2023
Further weakness ahead Manufacturing PMIs across the region rose slightly in December but remained weak overall. We continue to expect weaker global demand, high inflation and interest rates to drag on manufacturing ahead. December PMIs have been released …
3rd January 2023
Growth slowed sharply in the first two months of Q4 and we expect a further slowdown over the coming months as high inflation, multi-decade high interest rates and weaker global demand weigh on prospects. The flash estimate for Q4 GDP, largely computed …
Further weakness ahead Manufacturing PMIs across the region fell further into contractionary territory in November, driven by a sharp decline in the employment index. We expect conditions to remain subdued as weaker global demand, high inflation and …
1st December 2022
The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bps (to 1.25%), and reiterated that it is likely to continue tightening policy gradually over the coming months. The decision was correctly predicted by 17 out of the 19 analysts polled by …
30th November 2022
Revised GDP data confirm that the economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter. However, we don’t expect this strength to last. A combination of weaker global growth, high inflation and tighter monetary policy will weigh heavily on activity over the …
23rd November 2022
Thailand’s economy accelerated in the third quarter on the back of a surge in service exports. Although the global downturn and higher interest rates will weigh on prospects, we expect growth to hold up relatively well over the coming quarters as …
21st November 2022
Malaysia’s economy slowed in Q3, and we think growth will struggle over the coming quarters as lower commodity prices, weaker global demand and tighter monetary policy drag on prospects. According to figures published today, economic growth slowed to 1.9% …
11th November 2022
The Philippines economy rebounded in the third quarter of the year, but we expect growth to slow over the coming months as high inflation, rising interest rates and weaker global demand weigh on prospects. GDP grew by 2.9% in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms …
10th November 2022
Slower growth ahead Economic growth in Indonesia accelerated in the third quarter, but this is likely to be as good as it gets. We expect lower commodity prices, tighter monetary policy and elevated inflation to drag on growth over the coming quarters. …
7th November 2022
Asian manufacturing to remain weak Manufacturing PMIs across the region were downbeat in October owing to weak external demand and a deterioration in the employment outlook. We expect manufacturing to remain subdued, as weaker global demand, elevated …
1st November 2022
Taiwan’s economy returned to growth in Q3, after the Omicron-induced slump in the second quarter, but we expect growth to weaken considerably over the coming quarters as exports struggle and the reopening boost to domestic demand fades. According to …
28th October 2022
GDP growth in Korea slowed sharply in the third quarter of the year, and we think the economy will remain weak over the coming quarters as higher interest rates and weaker export demand weigh on prospects. According to figures published today, GDP growth …
27th October 2022
Asian manufacturing to remain weak Manufacturing PMIs across the region were downbeat in September, as new export orders declined again. We expect conditions to remain subdued, as weaker global demand, high inflation and tighter monetary policy continues …
3rd October 2022
Economy resilient but headwinds growing Vietnam recorded another quarter of strong growth last quarter, and while higher interest rates will act as a drag on demand, strong export demand should ensure the economy continues to outperform. Vietnam’s …
29th September 2022
Regional manufacturing weakens again Manufacturing PMIs across Asia fell back again in August, with the readings for Taiwan and Korea especially weak. We are not expecting any improvement over the coming months, with weaker global demand, high commodity …
1st September 2022
Thailand’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year on the back of a strong reopening boost. Although higher commodity prices will drag on the recovery, with the tourism sector enjoying a decent rebound, we expect the recovery to …
15th August 2022
GDP growth in Malaysia edged down in q/q terms last quarter, and we expect a further slowdown over the coming quarters as commodity prices drop back and the boost from reopening fades. Figures released today show the pace of growth in Malaysia slowed from …
12th August 2022
Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand drag on the economy. Today’s figures show that the …
9th August 2022
Economic growth in Indonesia remained strong in Q2, but we expect the economy to slow in the second half of the year as the jump in commodity prices goes into reverse and the boost from reopening fades. Today’s figures show that Indonesia grew by 5.4% y/y …
5th August 2022
Weak exports weigh on industrial demand Manufacturing PMIs for July fell back amid further signs that global demand is weakening. With global growth set to slow further and domestic interest rates set to continue rising, the region’s industrial sectors …
1st August 2022
GDP in Taiwan contracted last quarter as a surge in COVID-19 cases weighed heavily on consumer-facing sectors and exports slowed. Although consumption should bounce back now that virus cases are falling and mobility is rebounding, the worsening prospects …
29th July 2022
As good as it gets Korean GDP growth picked up slightly in the first quarter, but this is likely to be as good as it gets for the economy. We expect growth to slow in the second half of 2022 as rising interest rates, higher commodity prices and weaker …
26th July 2022
Further signs of weakness Manufacturing PMIs for June fell back mainly due to the weakness of external demand. We think weaker global growth will remain a drag on exports over the coming months and that the region’s industrial sectors face a tough year …
1st July 2022
Cost pressures remain high, signs of easing disruption in China Manufacturing PMIs for May suggest that cost pressures remain high, but there were more encouraging signs on the external front, with new export orders showing signs of stabilising. …
1st June 2022
The decent upwards revision to Q1 GDP data reveals that the economy gained more momentum at the end of the quarter, a trend which is likely to carry on throughout Q2. The second estimate of Q1 GDP shows that output grew by 0.7% q/q after a 2.3% rise in Q …
25th May 2022
Following continued growth in the first quarter, the pace of the recovery will largely depend on how quickly tourists return now that the country has fully reopened to foreign visitors. GDP grew by 1.1% q/q in Q1, down from the 1.8% expansion recorded in …
17th May 2022
Strong first quarter will be followed by continued recovery Malaysia’s economy continued to rebound strongly at the start of this year and should grow at a decent pace throughout the rest of 2022. That said, there is still a long way for the recovery to …
13th May 2022
Growth strong, for now The Philippines economy beat expectations again in Q1 and should have gained further momentum in recent months. But we suspect the strength of the recovery will begin to wane soon. GDP grew by 1.9% in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms, …
12th May 2022
Growth slowed in Q1 as Omicron held back the recovery at the start of the quarter. Activity is rebounding now that the economy has reopened, but other headwinds are growing. We estimate that the 5.0% y/y growth reported today for the first quarter is …
9th May 2022
Asia’s export-focussed industry softens further, more weakness ahead. Regional Manufacturing PMIs point to a further worsening of industry conditions, chiming with Korean trade data which suggest a major softening of external demand. Both reinforce the …
3rd May 2022
