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Growth rebounds in Q3, exports and investment to drive economy over coming year Taiwan’s economy rebounded in Q3, and we expect GDP growth to remain fairly strong over the coming quarters, helped by robust export demand. The advance estimate of GDP …
31st October 2024
The latest GDP figures showed a tepid rebound in Q3, following the contraction in Q2 and we expect Korea’s economic growth to remain below trend for the next few quarters. The advance estimate of GDP released today show that the economy expanded by just …
24th October 2024
Economy set to cool further Economic growth in Malaysia softened in Q3 but came in well above trend for the third consecutive quarter. Looking ahead we think GDP growth will drop back to trend if, as we expect, a jump in inflation driven by the removal of …
21st October 2024
We will be holding an online briefing later today to discuss the outlook for economic policy across Asia. You can register here . Hold does not mark the end of the easing cycle Bank Indonesia today left interest rates on hold (at 6.00%), but we think …
16th October 2024
We will be holding an online briefing later today to discuss the outlook for economic policy across Asia. You can register here . BoT cuts as deflation risks mount Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today cut interest rates by 25bps (to 2.25%), but appeared to …
Another 25bps cut, with more to come The central bank in the Philippines cut rates by 25bps and signalled that the recent economic data support its shift towards a looser monetary policy stance. Further gradual loosening lies in store in the coming …
MAS pivot still likely in January The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy settings unchanged today, but with growth set to weaken and inflation on its way to target we think the central bank will loosen policy in January. The MAS conducts …
14th October 2024
Interest rates cut, further easing ahead The Bank of Korea kickstarted its easing cycle today with a 25bps cut. With growth struggling and inflation below target, we expect more easing over the coming months. The decision to lower the policy rate from …
11th October 2024
CBC in no rush to join regional easing cycle Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.0%), and with growth set to accelerate we expect rates to remain on hold throughout 2024 and 2025. In contrast, the consensus is …
19th September 2024
Bank Indonesia today kicked off its easing cycle with a 25bps cut, taking its main policy rate to 6.00%. With inflation under control and the rupiah rebounding against the US dollar, further cuts are likely. While the decision was unexpected (it was …
18th September 2024
On hold, BNM to leave rates unchanged this year and next Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its overnight policy rate (OPR) on hold (at 3.00%) today, and is likely to be one of the few countries in Asia to leave interest rates unchanged throughout the rest …
5th September 2024
Rate cuts likely in October The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, but of more interest will be the tone of Governor Rhee’s press conference and the central bank’s statement later in the …
22nd August 2024
Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut before the end of the year. Today’s decision was correctly predicted by all 30 analysts polled by Reuters, …
21st August 2024
Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged but if, as we expect, growth slows further and inflation remains very low, we think the central bank will start loosening policy from October. Today’s decision came as little surprise and …
Thailand’s economy slowed in Q2 and we expect it to decelerate a bit further in the coming quarters as the boost from tourism fades and with uncertainty around fiscal policy now elevated, risks to our already downbeat growth outlook are skewed to the …
19th August 2024
The second estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed that Malaysia’s economy accelerated sharply but, with inflation set to jump, commodity prices likely to decline and the boost from tourism set to fade, we still expect a slowdown ahead. According to the second …
16th August 2024
BSP cuts rates, more easing to come The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 25bps cut (to 6.25%), and hinted that further easing was likely over the coming months. With inflation set to drop back further and …
15th August 2024
Thailand's Constitutional Court today dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a move that could trigger further political instability and bodes poorly for the country’s economy. Srettha, a real estate mogul, becomes the fourth Thai prime minister in 16 …
14th August 2024
The economy slowed sharply in Q2 and we expect below trend growth to persist over the rest of the year as tight monetary policy, slower growth in remittances and soft export demand weigh on activity in the Philippines. According to the data published …
8th August 2024
The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity set to weaken in the coming quarters, and concerns about inflation …
5th August 2024
The July PMIs from Emerging Asia nudged down slightly from the previous month but remained close to their two-year highs. However, the PMI data have been a poor guide to the hard activity data over the past year and we continue to expect manufacturing …
1st August 2024
Economy stalls, but growth to accelerate in H2 Taiwan’s economy almost stalled in the second quarter, with growth coming in well below our expectations. While we think GDP growth will pick up in the second half of the year, we are cutting our full-year …
31st July 2024
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has reduced interest rates. Prior to that, the policy rate …
29th July 2024
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy unchanged today, but we think today’s marginally dovish statement raises the likelihood of monetary easing in October. The MAS conducts monetary policy by targeting the nominal effective exchange rate …
26th July 2024
The latest GDP figures suggest that the central bank’s concerns about the weakness of domestic demand will only rise. With concerns about the health of the economy set to overtake those about inflation, we continue to expect the Bank of Korea to start …
25th July 2024
GDP growth accelerated sharply the second quarter but, with a jump in inflation set to curtail consumer spending and the boost from tourism likely to fade, we still expect a sharp slowdown in the coming quarters. According to the advanced estimate …
19th July 2024
BI hints at rate cuts in Q4 Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut in Q4. Today’s decision was correctly predicted by all 35 analysts polled by …
17th July 2024
GDP growth in Singapore remained below trend during the second quarter and we expect this to persist in the near term as the cooling labour market, elevated interest rates and weak global growth curtail activity. According to the first estimate of Q2 GDP …
12th July 2024
On hold, central bank in no rush to cut rates Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its overnight policy rate (OPR) on hold (at 3.00%) today, and the tone of the statement supports our view that rates will be left unchanged throughout 2024. The decision was …
11th July 2024
Interest rates left unchanged, but easing likely before year-end The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, but of more interest will be the tone of Governor Rhee’s press conference and the …
Dovish BSP hints at first rate cut in Q3 The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.50%), but dropped clear hints that rate cuts were coming soon. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will cut …
27th June 2024
BI hints at rate cuts, timing dependent on currency Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%), but hinted at possible rate cuts later in the year, provided that the rupiah stabilises against the US dollar. The central bank’s dovish …
20th June 2024
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.0%), and with growth set to remain strong we expect rates to remain on hold throughout 2024 and 2025. In contrast, the consensus is expecting rate cuts next year. The decision to …
13th June 2024
BoT on hold, but cuts likely later in the year Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged and appeared in no rush to loosen policy. We think the weakness of the economy and very low inflation will persuade the central bank to …
12th June 2024
On hold, but easing likely before year-end The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave the policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, of more interest will be the tone of the central bank’s statement and Governor Rhee’s press conference. …
23rd May 2024
BI on hold, cuts by year-end Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%) and the comments from the press conference suggest this marks the end of the tightening cycle. Following April surprise hike, today’s decision came as no …
22nd May 2024
Thailand’s economy rebounded in Q1 and we expect steady, if unspectacular, growth this year driven by a further rebound in tourism and strong government spending. The 1.1% q/q rise in Q1 GDP, following the 0.4% decline in Q4, was well above consensus …
20th May 2024
The second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the economy rebounded last quarter but we continue to expect below-trend GDP growth this year as a whole. The softening labour market, tighter fiscal policy and soft foreign demand are all likely to weigh on …
17th May 2024
Dovish BSP hints at first rate cut in Q3 The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.50%), but the tone of the statement was much less hawkish than at its April meeting. Not only did the central bank cut its …
16th May 2024
Rates on hold throughout 2024 Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its overnight policy rate (OPR) on hold (at 3.00%) today, and the tone of its statement supports our view that rates will be left unchanged throughout 2024. The decision was correctly predicted …
9th May 2024
GDP growth in the Philippines slowed in Q1 and we expect further weakness over the rest of the year as tight monetary policy, slower growth in remittances and weaker export demand weigh on activity. According to the data published today, GDP growth …
The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth in Indonesia remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity likely to remain weak and concerns about inflation and the …
6th May 2024
Taiwan’s economy accelerated in y/y terms last quarter and we expect growth to remain strong over the coming year, helped by robust demand for AI-related products. Economic growth slowed in q/q terms but the strength of the economy over the past year …
30th April 2024
GDP growth in Korea rose sharply in Q1 but we don't expect this strength to last. Weak global growth is set to weigh on exports in the near term while tight monetary and fiscal policy will curtail domestic demand. Today’s figures show that the economy …
25th April 2024
Hike aimed at supporting the currency In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%), and made clear that supporting the currency would remain its key priority over the coming months. However, with …
24th April 2024
The economy rebounded during the first quarter but we continue to expect the economy to grow below trend this year as a whole. Elevated interest rates, a cooling labour market, soft foreign demand and tighter fiscal policy are all likely to curtail …
19th April 2024
On hold, early rate cut unlikely With inflationary pressures lingering, the currency falling sharply and expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve being pushed back, the prospect of an early rate cut by the Bank of Korea (which today left …
12th April 2024
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy settings unchanged today, as expected, but with the economy set to remain weak and core inflation on track to resume its downward trend soon we think the MAS will loosen policy at its meeting in …
BoT on hold, but cuts likely later in the year Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to loosen monetary policy, but with growth set to remain weak and inflationary pressures very subdued, we still think rate cuts are …
10th April 2024
Forecast change after hawkish BSP meeting The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.50%), but sounded more hawkish than we had expected on inflation. Accordingly, we are pushing back the timing of when we …
8th April 2024
