Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The latest data indicate some improvement in economic activity, particularly for industry, at the start of this year. World trade edged up in January and looks to have risen in February too. But this hasn’t altered our view that global growth excluding China will be slightly below trend in 2024. This will be driven by lacklustre consumer spending, particularly in Europe, where retail sales have been falling and consumer confidence remained historically low in March. Meanwhile, inflation surprised to the upside again in the US in March. And although we still expect inflation in DMs to return to central bank targets by the end of this year, the better inflation outturns in Europe mean that we now expect the ECB and Bank of England to begin cutting rates before the Fed.
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