Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics agrees that consensus may be right this time, too, and gold could be rangebound for a while. He notes that the last two big rallies (1976-1982, 2008-2012) lasted three to four years, and by that standard this one is starting to age. And his team expects the dollar to rebound in the medium term, which would be a headwind. He also points out that gold ETF inflows — which, in a break with history, have not been a big contributor to this rally — are now rising.
