Global Economics Update US continues to lead the way on our AI index A year ago, we developed our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the benefits of AI. We have updated that index, and the big picture... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Don’t lose hope of AI’s economic potential This summer’s falls in the share prices of companies involved in producing AI chips have prompted some to question whether the AI revolution will be quite the game-changer it has been built up to be... 26th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Green tech and chips will remain key battlegrounds Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic... 3rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Urbanisation won’t be a key growth driver In its new urbanisation plan, China’s government is setting its targets low. The goal of reaching a 70% urbanisation rate in five years’ time could be met with far smaller increases in the urban... 2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Will ageing populations drag on productivity? As well as adversely impacting the growth of the workforce, ageing populations may also have a small negative impact on productivity. There is plenty of scope for this to be offset by a positive boost... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Scepticism warranted on China’s capital market reforms We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we think will provide disappointing long-run returns. 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update UN projections point to slower global population growth The downward revisions to global population growth in the UN’s latest projections won’t have a major bearing on our long-term GDP growth forecasts. That’s because a lot of the revision was driven by... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI and friendshoring boosting (some) Asian exporters Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have... 10th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: demographics key challenge for new PM Increased immigration would be the easiest way for Singapore to offset a decline in the working age population. However, such a move would be politically controversial, and deciding how many foreign... 14th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update A close race for fourth place The slump in the yen has resulted in Germany overtaking Japan as the world’s 3rd largest economy at market exchange rates. We expect Japan to overtake Germany yet again in the early 2030s as the yen... 9th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Are weight loss drugs a game-changer? There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow... 14th March 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update India to lead EM rise up the global GDP rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs... 11th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update COP28 & long-run energy demand The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Which countries will struggle to shrink fiscal deficits? Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and, for various reasons, most are likely to find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
