Ukraine map

Russia-Ukraine:

The Economic and Market Consequences

We’re tracking the near to long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine across our macro and market services. Here you'll find the latest, key insight from across our economic and financial and commodity market services on the impact of the war in Ukraine. 

Russia’s economy is wounded, not screaming in pain

EMERGING EUROPE

Russia’s economy is wounded, not screaming in pain

Russia's economy has held up reasonably well under the weight of Western sanctions, but their full effect will take years to feed through and will severely reduce its medium-term potential.
The impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE so far

EMERGING EUROPE

The impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE so far

Ukrainian refugees have boosted labour forces and consumer spending across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) since the outbreak of the war, but this could prove short-lived.
Gas crisis heightens German recession risk

EUROPE

Gas crisis heightens German recession risk

A recession is already likely this year. If Russia cuts the gas off, it’s a near certainty.
EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard

Energy

EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard

Exports could fall 20% this year if an embargo is approved but there won’t be immediate pain for the Russian economy.
Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks

Commodities

Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks

The macro and market fallout from Russia’s move to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria.
Early signs of trade fallout from the war

GLOBAL TRADE

Early signs of trade fallout from the war

With traditional trade data badly lagged, we’ve developed three new indicators to help with timely tracking of the impact of the war on trade flows.
US corporate earnings may be resilient to Ukraine war

GLOBAL MARKETS

US corporate earnings may be resilient to Ukraine war

Earnings may come under some pressure in the coming months but not by enough to stop the S&P 500 from making small gains in the next couple of years.
What will China do with its FX reserves?

CHINA

What will China do with its FX reserves?

Sanctions on Russia may spook China into diversifying more of its $5tn in FX reserves, but there’s only so much it can do if it still wants a managed exchange rate.
Emerging Europe: War reinforces weak values outlook

NON-EURO EUROPEAN COMMERCIAL PROPERTY

Emerging Europe: War reinforces weak values outlook

Office and retail rents in the Central and Eastern Europe can return to growth this year, but the recovery is likely to be slower than previously expected.
The costs of Russia’s shift towards isolation

THe Long run

The costs of Russia’s shift towards isolation

Isolation means Russia won’t be able to catch up with advanced economies, while the West will also face some difficult choices.
The long-run effect of the Ukrainian refugee crisis

The Long Run

The long-run effect of the Ukrainian refugee crisis

Migrants fleeing the war will boost the workforces in the countries where they settle, offsetting unfavourable demographic forces.
The economic consequences of the war

Global Economics

The economic consequences of the war

With Russia’s economy poised to tumble down the rankings, this note from our long-term service discusses some of the war’s potential lasting effects on the global economy.
Lessons from past conflicts and crises

Global Markets

Lessons from past conflicts and crises

A trawl through recent history suggests to us that equities could face more pressure and government bond yields could still rise.