China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2024) China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since May, with export volumes reaching a record high. We doubt the sustainability of this strength, however, since exporters now have more limited... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of high terms of trade on Australia The surge in the terms of trade explains some of the resilience of Australia’s economy as it has probably encouraged the government to spend more money than it would have done without soaring mining... 7th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Hike & Devaluation The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a bumper 600bp, to 27.25%, shows that policymakers are committed to the turn back... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end but tightening cycle unlikely The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at... 6th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Feb. 2024) February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But Egypt’s economy appears to be... 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s external rebalancing: less than meets the eye The sharp narrowing in Colombia’s current account deficit last year to its lowest level since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis looks encouraging, but it was entirely a result of the... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco well placed to move towards floating dirham Morocco’s improving balance of payments position and the sharp slowdown in inflation should provide the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), with the confidence to take the next step toward a fully... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs? The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ras el Hekma deal, Qatar’s LNG expansion boost The deal in which Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will invest $35bn in the Ras el-Hekma project will provide much needed foreign currency inflows for Egypt’s economy. But, even with this... 29th February 2024 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania needs to reduce its macro imbalances Romania’s large twin budget and current account deficits remain a key concern. One near-term risk is that fiscal policy stays very loose (or is loosened further), particularly in view of elections... 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation fades. Even so, tight fiscal and... 28th February 2024 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Ras el Hekma deal paves the way for policy shift The $35bn deal struck between Egypt’s government and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will go some way towards alleviating acute balance of payments strains and pave the way for an enhanced... 27th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting deflation? Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of... 26th February 2024 · 4 mins read