Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Lower core goods inflation in the pipeline September’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity stagnated at the end of Q3, and forward-looking indicators point to further weakness ahead. The recent rise in oil prices seemed... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Downturn in global trade set to deepen further Global goods trade fell at its fastest pace since the pandemic in July and the timelier trade and survey data point to further declines in August and September. What’s more, given that we still expect... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs consistent with interest rate peaks The September Flash PMIs add to evidence that economic activity in the US and Europe is weakening. This supports our view that the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England have finished hiking interest rates. 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Key questions after the latest central bank meetings We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss the latest policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England and what they might mean for the future path of policy and financial markets. (See the recording... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update A tipping point for global monetary policy Despite all the talk of “higher for longer”, we believe that the global monetary policy tightening cycle is drawing to a close. In Q4, any final rate hikes in advanced economies will coincide with a... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game-changer for inflation We are not convinced that the increase in oil prices has set the stage for a sustained rebound in inflation. Accordingly, there is little chance that developed market central banks will resume or... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What will it take to bring down wage growth? Although wage growth is clearly falling in the US, the same cannot be said for the UK and euro-zone despite some evidence of labour markets cooling there too. A further fall in inflation expectations... 13th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 underlines that fracturing is becoming a reality The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Macro catch-up: the global state of play Developments in the past few weeks have moved the dial somewhat on the global story. In major DMs, there have been more signs of activity softening either in terms of output or employment, evidence of... 7th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs still point to weak outlook for industry in DMs Although a rise in Chinese manufacturing output meant that the decline in global manufacturing activity eased slightly in August, the outlook for industry in advanced economies in particular remains... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Further weakness in store for world trade Not only did global goods trade fall in June, but timelier trade and survey data for July and August point to further declines. Meanwhile, with the lagged impact of high interest rates likely to weigh... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs raise recession risks again August’s flash PMIs support our view that both the euro-zone and UK will slip into recession in Q3 and imply that the US is now barely growing. And with output prices still easing gradually, the... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Ambition collides with reality at the BRICS summit China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Interest rate-sensitive activity still holding up Interest rate-sensitive activity in advanced economies has fallen, but is still holding up rather well given how much interest rates have risen. This is partly due to the rebound in auto sales and... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How many global risks lie in China's Country Garden The immediate global economic and market fallout from troubles at Chinese property developer Country Garden seems likely to be limited. Foreign exposure to China’s property sector has fallen sharply... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read